Fork Cast

In 2024, due to frosts in May, the harvest of stone fruits and berries in Russia will decrease, which will lead to an increase in prices for these products.

Optimistic forecasts are being made regarding the apple harvest, but the risk of losing up to half of the entire fruit harvest still remains.

The drop in temperature also affected the North Caucasus and the South of the country. In 2023, Russia set a record for fruit and berry harvest, but self-sufficiency is still insufficient.

The Ministry of Agriculture is implementing a program for the development of rural areas, updating infrastructure facilities and improving living conditions.

Over the past 5 years, 9.5 million square meters of housing have been introduced, rural mortgages and rental housing have been provided. The participation of investors and plans to expand the program are also being considered.

Preventing harmful powdery mildew in vineyards is a complex task due to their reproduction, sap-sucking, disease-causing, and virus-transmitting capabilities. Receptors detecting female pheromones have been found, which will help control their behavior. The creation of molecules to block these receptors and the use of biosensors are planned to combat these pests.

The Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision (Rosselkhoznadzor) has inspected over 377 thousand tons of grain for export to 13 countries, with export volume increasing by 1.6 times. Wheat accounts for 64% of the export, and Kazakhstan is the main buyer. Violations identified led to export bans and issuance of 143 warnings.

Forecast: In 2024/25, the stocks of oilseeds will reach a record level. Soybean production will increase by 6% to 422 million tonnes. Production of other oilseeds, excluding coconut, will also slightly increase. Vegetable oil consumption is expected to grow by 2%, while final stocks will decrease. Overall, an increase in production and consumption of oilseeds is expected, alongside a reduction in stocks.

Amfora, Inc. has received approval for research on genetically modified soybeans with high protein content from APHIS. The new variety promises to increase protein production by 25% and reduce expenses on plant-based proteins. The product is expected to hit the market no earlier than 2027.

Canal company has confirmed that its sugar beet factory is the largest in the world. The project received $1 billion in investments. It will help fill the sugar production gap in Egypt, replace imports worth $900 million, and create jobs for 1500 people.

Brazilian factories have switched from sugar production to ethanol due to an energy crisis, leading to a sugar shortage. Factory owners claim that profits from ethanol offset the losses. A similar situation occurred in 2021.

Soon, 11 Latin American countries will sign an agreement to simplify customs procedures, reducing processing time to half an hour.

According to the USDA data, the prices for spring wheat have decreased due to the planting area. The yield forecast in South America and the WASDE report will be key factors in determining the price dynamics for agricultural products.

The domestic market is closely watching soybean production in the US, with expectations of an increase to 4.43 billion bushels and a decrease in corn production.

Delays in sugar deliveries through the exchange in New York have sparked discussions on protecting buyers' interests. Wilmar was unable to load the ships it had sold, raising concerns about potential losses for buyers. The lack of specific loading deadlines after contract expiration is causing disputes among traders. Some attribute the delays to expected issues with loading and port maintenance in Brazil.

In China, research is being conducted on the use of gene editing for soft wheat. Scientists have found that turning off the TabHLH489 gene increases grain size, while its intensive expression has the opposite effect. A mutant called Tamlo-R32, resistant to diseases, has been created and crossed with the best wheat varieties. The first approval of edited wheat is important for China, which uses it in the production of pasta and bread. Beijing also plans to introduce new labeling rules for genetically modified crops in food products.

In the new season, Russia plans to export 52 million tons of wheat, remaining the world leader. The EU will reduce exports by 1 million tons due to a decrease in production, and Ukraine's exports will also decrease. Russian supplies are competitive; a decrease in global wheat trade is expected. Major suppliers such as Canada, the US, and Australia will increase exports, intensifying competition. Wheat consumption in Russia will decrease, global production will amount to 798.2 million tons. Analysts have lowered the wheat harvest forecast in Russia to 89.9 million tons due to drought, with possible additional adjustments.

Wheat is more resistant to May frosts than rapeseed. Hardened plants cope better with cold due to changes in physiology. It is important to consult with agronomists to make a decision on reseeding after frosts. It may not be necessary to immediately conduct a complete reseeding.

Good weather at the beginning of the season has a positive effect on the health of strawberries, but May frosts with rains can lead to the development of diseases. To protect them, it is recommended to diagnose and use preventive measures: choose a well-lit place with a good drainage system, cover the strawberry patch with fleece and mulch, and fertilize the plants.

In the USA, the sugar market is actively supported by cooperation between producers, farmers, and the government. The volume of production is regulated to prevent overproduction and establish minimum prices. An example of this is the farmer cooperative Crystal Sugar. It is interesting that sugar prices in the USA range from 2.37 to 3.69 dollars per kilogram.

Russia is facing a threat of reduced grain and wheat harvest due to drought in the south of the country and poor agricultural practices. Experts are concerned about a decrease in exports and harvest, which could worsen the economic situation and position in the global market.

Possible rains in May may partially improve the situation.