Monitoring - Fork Cast

Oil Union forecast: the export duty on sunflower oil in December will increase to 8,000 rubles per ton, in January - up to 15,000 rubles per ton.

Estimates for oilseed crops were overstated; the shortfall is being compensated by yields in the Volga region and Altai. The average prices for sunflower seeds have reached a maximum in two years - 45,200 rubles per ton.

Last week, prices for Russian wheat decreased to $226/ton FOB. Prices for French wheat dropped to $238/ton, while American wheat increased to $258/ton.

Forecasts for corn and soybean harvest in the U.S. were lowered, but the overall forecast for global wheat production remained unchanged. Prices for wheat on the domestic market stayed stable.

There is a new section on the website dedicated to the regions of Russia actively involved in grain processing. It provides information on purchases and sales of agricultural products, production capacities, and infrastructure. The new section allows users to easily find companies, track prices, and establish partnerships.

Prices for sunflower seeds in Russia are rising due to low yields and increased demand. Manufacturers note small seeds with less oil content, which also affects prices. Experts do not expect a sharp increase in prices in the future.

The Ministry of Agriculture and the American agricultural department confirm the yield forecasts. Sunflower harvesting in southern Russia has begun, and prices are expected to stabilize.

The Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) has discovered high markups on bread in the largest retail chains, reaching up to 60% for common types. The Association of Retail Companies (AKORT) did not confirm the study, noting that social obligations are being met. Bread prices in October are 40% below the national average, and the price increase is due to rising production costs. Manufacturers are facing a shortage of staff, leading to higher wages, and are not rushing to raise prices on products.

It is expected that the grain harvest this year will amount to about 130 million tons, including 83 million tons of wheat. Poor weather in Siberia and collection issues in some regions have led to a lowering of the forecast. Already, 122 million tons of grain have been harvested, ensuring food security and creating potential for exports.

Raising excise taxes on alcoholic beverages could freeze investment projects in the beer industry for 33.5 billion rubles. Changes in tax legislation could reverse industry growth and trigger a crisis due to high excise duties.

The proposals of the beer producers' association include annual indexation and support for investors.

Prices for sunflower seeds and oil continue to rise due to a reduction in the harvest. An increase in demand and a shortage of seeds are forecasted.

The rise in prices is confirmed by the head of the company "Agrotech-Garant". The export of oil may become more expensive.

Prices for corn have risen in various regions of Russia, while the export duty has been increased. Experts predict a harvest of around 12 million tons, which will reduce the volume of exports. The increase in duty has sparked debates: some view it as a measure to lower prices, while others see it as an unjustified decision.

The Ministry of Economic Development predicts a 3% reduction in agricultural production in 2024, although earlier a reduction of 1.9% was forecasted.

The new scenario suggests growth in the years 2025-2027. The harvest is expected to decrease due to unfavorable weather conditions, but growth is expected by 2027.

It is important to search for new export markets.

On the domestic wheat market, prices have increased: by 300 rubles in the southern regions, by 100 rubles in the central region, by 150 rubles in the Volga region, and by 250 rubles in Siberia.

The export of Russian wheat in October has dropped to 215-217 dollars FOB due to the increase in prices for other types of wheat. The wheat export forecast is reduced to 5.35 million tons in September, with an expected 4.4-4.8 million tons in October.

It is forecasted that the buckwheat crop will decrease this year, while the rice crop will increase. Weather conditions impact production. Specialists anticipate an adequate amount of produce for consumers. Overall, a successful harvest is projected, despite some challenges, especially in Altai.