Monitoring - Fork Cast

Production of agricultural products in Russian farms has increased: by 1.4% in April, by 1.6% in January-April. Experts expect a growth ranging from 2% to 4.4% this year, however, some believe that the forecasts are overestimated due to negative factors.

The CEO of the Health & Nutrition company believes that by 2030, Russia could return to Soviet-era milk consumption levels, reaching 390 kg per capita. Currently, this figure stands at 250 kg. The increase in consumption is attributed to pricing policies, expanding assortment, and government support.

Export of wheat and meslin from Russia is limited to a quota of 10.6 million tons due to low profitability. It is forecasted that the volume of shipments will be around 9 million tons. The decrease in the dollar value and the strengthening of the ruble are increasing costs.

In April, it is planned to export only 1.92 million tons, which is 2.5 times less than the previous year.

The government has introduced amendments to the agricultural development program, tightening the conditions for obtaining subsidies and grants.

The subsidy application process will be simplified, especially for agricultural insurance. Conditions for seed production and fish farming organizations will also change.

The President of the Russian Grain Union confirmed the grain harvest forecast - 125 million tons. Winter crops are in good condition, but there are risks due to a cold front. Snow will help preserve crops at temperatures below -20°C. There is not enough snow to ensure the required soil moisture level. It is planned to plant winter crops on 20 million hectares, including grains on 19.2 million hectares.

Forecast for 2025: According to the CEO of Soyuzmoloko, the production of commercial milk will remain at the level of 26.3 million tons. Two scenarios have been developed: milk prices may rise or remain at the inflation level.

By 2030, it is planned to increase production to 31.3 million tons in order to ensure food security.

Analysts have raised the forecast for wheat exports in March to 1.85 million tons. Wheat prices fell under pressure from favorable rain forecasts in Russia and the United States. Internal wheat prices remained practically unchanged.

Russia plans to export 1 million tons of meat abroad this year. The exports have increased to Chinese and African markets. However, the strengthening of the ruble and animal diseases in Europe could pose risks to the plans.

The company "Damate" has been granted the first right in Russia to export turkey meat to Singapore.

Export of wheat from Russia decreased to 1.9 million tons in February, the lowest level in the past five years.

Prices for wheat within the country have risen. Further decrease in export volumes is predicted due to low profitability and demand from exporters.

The potential wheat export for this season is estimated at 42 million tons, a decrease of 1.9 million tons compared to the previous season.

The company ProZerno has announced that the prices for rye have increased from 8 to 15.1 thousand rubles per ton. Wholesale prices have risen by 70%, reaching 11,223 rubles per ton. The reduction in rye cultivation due to high costs and low profits is causing concern among specialists.

It is possible that rye will become a niche product due to insufficient demand and high production costs.

Analysts at SovEcon have reduced their forecast for Russian wheat exports for the current season to 42.2 million tonnes due to low profitability for exporters. For the next season, they expect export growth to reach 38.9 million tonnes. The wheat export quota may not have been fully utilized as traders aim to improve margins. SovEcon has warned of a slowdown in export pace due to limited supply, a strong ruble, and negative margins.

Russia increased its exports of mineral products and metals in 2024, while the export of agricultural products decreased. The total export amounted to 433.9 billion dollars, with imports at 283 billion. Asia became Russia's main partner. The export of agricultural products remained at the same level as in 2023, despite the instability of global prices.