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According to the ProZerno company report, prices for food rye reached almost 15.1 thousand rubles per ton by mid-February, compared to 8 thousand rubles per ton last year. Rosstat report indicates that the average selling price for Russian agricultural producers for rye in December 2024 was 11,223 rubles per ton without VAT, which is 70% higher than a year ago. Despite the increase in sales of rye from the intervention fund in February, farmers are not inspired to increase its cultivation.
When making decisions about rye sowings, not only profitability is taken into account, although this factor plays an important role. Arkadiy Zlochevsky, the President of the Russian Grain Union, reports that another significant factor is crop rotation. Even if rye is not a profitable crop for an extended period, it remains a good predecessor for other plants as it helps balance soil nutrients. However, in the 2023/24 season, rye turned out to be unprofitable, leading to a decrease in its cultivation due to loss of motivation.
No one invested in the development of rye production, notes Zlochevsky. According to Rosstat data, last year the sown areas under rye decreased by 20% to 667 thousand hectares, and the yield was 1.16 million tons according to preliminary data, compared to 1.7 million tons in 2023. Despite price increases due to low collection levels, farmers will not increase sowings. Grain production costs have increased by 30% in the last year, and for rye – by 50%.
Zlochevsky specifies that a lot of hybrid seeds of German genetics produced in Lipetsk were purchased. However, seeds of German selection are prohibited for import. Now Russian agricultural producers are forced to switch to Russian hybrids, which have lower yields. The cost of rye production will increase to 13.5 thousand rubles per ton, and even a sales price at the level of 15-16 thousand rubles per ton will not provide sufficient income due to high loan rates and other obligations.
The main type of rye grown in Russia is winter rye, and sowings for the 2025 harvest have already begun. However, its safety remains a question. Rye, a traditional northern culture, adapts well to drought, frost, and increased humidity. In Russia, it is mainly grown in small farms that quickly respond to economic conditions. However, demand for rye was low last year due to low prices, leading to a reduction in sown areas.
Gross rye harvest may decrease to 0.9 million tons, and this crop may become niche. To motivate agricultural producers to increase rye sowings, prices for it should not be lower than for wheat. There are rye hybrids that allow for higher yields compared to wheat. However, changing the structure of sown areas in favor of rapeseed and soybeans may reduce the possibility of expanding areas under rye. An information campaign demonstrating the benefits of rye bread and other rye products is needed to increase demand for rye and raise prices. However, consumption of rye bread is decreasing, and bakers often replace rye flour with cheaper wheat flour.
Everything will depend on consumer behavior. If they are willing to pay high prices for quality rye bread, it could lead to increased demand for rye and higher prices. Dmitry Rylko, the Director of the Institute of Agricultural Market, believes that rye is becoming an exclusive product, and its production may almost cease.
