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The analytical center "Rusagrotrans" estimated that wheat exports in February were only 1.9 million tons, taking into account deliveries to the EAEU countries. This is the lowest figure in the last five years. In February 2020, 1.93 million tons were shipped. Earlier, analysts expected the export volume to be 2.2-2.3 million tons. It is projected that in March, shipments will be even lower - 1.5-1.7 million tons, which is the lowest value since March 2021. This decrease is explained by the exporters' negative profitability at current prices and demand levels.
On the domestic market, prices for 4th class wheat in the South increased on average by 50 rubles, reaching a level of 16-16.5 thousand rubles per ton without VAT (EXW elevator). In the Center, prices remained at the level of 15.7-16.1 thousand rubles per ton, in the Volga region they increased by 150 rubles, reaching the level of 15.8-16.2 thousand rubles per ton. In Siberia, 4th class wheat also rose by 150 rubles to 12-12.5 thousand rubles per ton.
In deepwater ports, prices for wheat with 12.5% protein remained stable at around 18-18.2 thousand rubles per ton without VAT. Prices CPT Novorossiysk with delivery by rail decreased by 150 rubles and amounted to 18.8-19.2 thousand rubles per ton.
Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein with delivery in March stabilized at $252 per ton FOB. The price of Romanian wheat decreased by $6 to $244 per ton, the price of French wheat fell by $7 to $237 per ton, American wheat lost $14 to $238 per ton, Argentine wheat increased by $2 to $241 per ton.
At the Winter Grain Conference in Belokurikha, Igor Pavensky, the head of the analytical center "Rusagrotrans", estimated the potential export of wheat in this season at no more than 42 million tons. In his forecast, 34.3 million tons of wheat will be shipped from the beginning of the agricultural year until February, which is 1.9 million tons less than in the previous season. The remaining amount for export in March-June is estimated at 7.7 million tons. According to Pavensky's estimates, the quota that started operating from mid-February, amounting to 10.6 million tons, will be used to export around 8.3 million tons or less.
