International trade - Fork Cast

At the beginning of the current season, Kazakhstan increased exports of lentils to Turkey, sending 107.1 thousand tons in September-October 2024. The volume of exports in October reached a record 45.5 thousand tons.

Additionally, imports of lentils to Afghanistan have also increased.

Sales of grain from the State Intervention Fund at the Exchange decreased by 5.7 times - to 945 tons for 14.241 million rubles. The trades were conducted in 12 mini-sessions, with the next ones scheduled for December 26-28. The Fund has accumulated 4 million tons of grain since the beginning of purchases in 2023 and successfully sold 113,940 tons of wheat.

In the Kursk branch, research on maize continues. 27.9 thousand studies have been conducted with a total volume of 1.21 million tons. The grain is being tested for compliance with standards, impurity content, and safety. The tested samples meet the requirements. Specialists recommend monitoring exports and compliance with storage rules.

By the end of October 2024, Russia has increased its export of sunflower oil to India to 1.8 million tons, which is twice as much as the previous year. India has become the main importer, acquiring 43% of the total volume, followed by Turkey at 15% and China at 13%.

In the current season, India plans to import 3.4 million tons of sunflower oil, while Russia is strengthening its position in the market.

At the "Pig Farming-2024" conference, the general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Conjunction discussed plans to increase processing of oilseeds that require additional planting areas. The crop yields are differently evaluated: sunflower will decrease, while rapeseed and soybean will reach record levels. Prices for meal are decreasing, raising questions about the quality of soybean. Russian producers of rapeseed meal will face changes in market channels due to the export ban to the EU.

The National Commodity Exchange has launched a test calculation of new exchange indices for sunflower seeds, rapeseed, and margarine. The indices display prices per 1 ton of the product. The calculations are based on NTB auction prices including VAT. Market interest in the new indices is planned to be evaluated.

The USMCA Trade Commission has deemed Mexico's ban on genetically modified corn from the USA as illegal. Mexico disagrees with the decision, stating that it is based on health protection. The appointment of Mexico's new president has not influenced the decision to maintain the ban.

India extends the temporary ban on futures trading of key agricultural commodities until January 2025. SEBI has shortened the ban by one month, signaling a possible resumption of futures trading at the beginning of next year. The decision has a positive impact on the oilseeds market in the country.

Production of soybeans in the EU has decreased due to poor weather conditions. The European Commission has reduced the forecast to 2.8 million tons, which is 10,000 tons less than the previous year. In Romania, the harvest has decreased by 44%, reaching 171,000 tons. Hungary has increased production by 50%, but yields remain below average. Italian companies have reduced soybean imports by 5%. Sunflower crop in the Balkans is also expected to be low due to bad weather.

In Kazakhstan, the harvesting of oilseeds, including sunflower, has been successfully completed. The gross yield has increased by 46% compared to the previous year, however, the prices for seeds are rising due to their shortage. This leads to a decrease in the profitability of oil plants, but will allow farmers to increase revenue in the next season.

The Russian government has established a tariff quota for the export of sunflower seeds from the Zabaikalsky Krai: 9300 tons until August 31, 2025. The regulation comes into effect in 7 days.

The start of Russia's agricultural exports in 2024 showed a 10% growth in volume, but a decrease in value, which Krasnov hopes to rectify by the end of the year. The potential for further development is seen in the export of meat, milk, and processed products. Russia plans to export more than 108 million tons of products abroad in 2024.