International trade - Fork Cast

In the USA, the harvesting of winter wheat has accelerated due to dry weather. 37% of the fields have been threshed, which is 18% more than a week ago.

Spring wheat crops are developing faster but are in worse condition than last year. Corn crops are in good condition: 73%, which is 1% higher than a week ago.

Export companies have set new prices for Russian wheat, which now amount to 14500 rubles per ton ($184).

Analysts note price fluctuations for the new crop from July to October 2024, with a minimum of 14750 rubles per ton ($167) and a maximum of 17900 rubles per ton ($186). The unstable financial situation could affect prices.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has released initial estimates of the soybean crop: only 5 states have not reached 60% in the "good" to "excellent" category. Iowa and Wisconsin are at 18% and 16% respectively. In Illinois, 48% of soybeans are in excellent condition, while in Iowa it's 63%. Iowa's weather conditions are favorable for soybean growth following May precipitation. Cold and dry weather in May slowed down crop development. An increase in temperature is expected in early June, which could improve crop prospects.

Service MARS has increased the forecast for grain yields in the EU, highlighting favorable conditions in the south, but expressing concern over dryness in the north.

The forecast for wheat is 6.05 t/ha, which is 9% higher than last year. Barley is projected at 5.23 t/ha, while maize is expected to reach 7.46 t/ha. The yield of rapeseed in 2025 is estimated at 3.17 t/ha.

Since the beginning of the year, the export of agricultural products from Russia to China has increased by 8%, reaching $3.1 billion. It is expected that by 2030, the volume will exceed $11 billion. Russia is an important supplier of fish, oils, grains, and buckwheat to China. The export of pasta and alcohol is also increasing.

The Russian government has extended the temporary ban on the export of live rice until the end of 2025 due to production problems following the accident at the hydropower plant. Exceptions to the ban include supplies to the Eurasian Economic Union and humanitarian aid.

A tariff quota has been introduced for the export of processed rice and cereals.

In Tunisia, the harvest is successfully coming to an end. A total of 134,208 tons of grain have been collected, including 133,735 tons for consumption and 473,600 tons for seeds.

The wheat harvest is planned to be 1,350,000 tons and barley - 550,000 tons. Tunisia remains a major consumer of Russian wheat.

The center of Rosselkhozbank has completed the Forum on the development of linseed production in Russia. The planting area will increase by 5%, reaching 1.753 million hectares, with a yield of up to 1.42 million tons.

This year, the export of linseeds has decreased by 15%, with China and Belgium leading in purchases.

Land areas under oilseed crops in Russia have reached a historical maximum of 20 million hectares, with a harvest of 31-32 million tons. Producers are switching to sunflower, rapeseed, beans, reducing wheat and rye cultivation. It is expected that processing of oil crops and meal will increase.

Export of meal decreased by 10%, rapeseed meal increased, while soybean meal decreased.

The company "Ukrzaliznytsia" has proposed to revise the rate for delivering goods to the port of Izmail. V. Tkachev stated that the decision has not been made by the Ministry of Infrastructure yet.

The discussions also covered stimulating freight transportation to the ports on the Danube and changing tariffs for container transportation across Ukraine.

According to NASS data, as of June 8, 3% of corn has been planted, emergence is at 87%, and soybeans are planted at 90%.

Wheat harvest: winter wheat harvested is at 4%, spring wheat is at 53% in good condition but lags behind last year.

ICAS is preparing to adjust the crop forecast in the Rostov region and Krasnodar region due to soil moisture disruption. However, the harvest in other regions may increase. In Kuban, 13.8 million tons of grain were harvested, in the Rostov region - 11.6 million tons. According to ICAS forecast, by 2025, Russia is expected to produce 130-131 million tons of grain. New data will be presented next week after field inspection.

In 2024, 125.85 million tons of grain were harvested, including 82.5 million tons of wheat.