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It is projected that the production of commercial milk in 2025 will amount to 26.3 million tons, corresponding to the level of the previous year, according to Artem Belov, the General Director of the National Union of Milk Producers ("Soyuzmoloko"), who spoke at a round table of the State Duma Committee on Agricultural Issues, as reported by "Finmarket." He noted that the forecast for the current year is conservative and will be comparable to last year, perhaps with a slight increase.
The Union has developed two scenarios for the industry, both predicting the same production of commercial milk in both cases. The first scenario assumes that the growth of retail prices for dairy products will compensate for the increase in production costs and will correspond to its dynamics. In the second scenario, price growth rates will be below the inflation level.
According to the first scenario, milk product imports this year will amount to 7.5 million tons in milk equivalent, which is 0.5 million tons or 7.5% more than in 2024, while milk stocks at enterprises will decrease by 0.1 million tons to 1 million tons. In the second scenario, an increase in imports by 1 million tons or 14% to 8 million tons is expected. In this case, stocks may amount to 0.5 million tons compared to 1.1 million tons the year before. Both scenarios assume exports at the level of 2024 - 1.1 million tons converted into milk.
According to the Union's forecast, by 2030, the production of commercial milk may reach 31.3 million tons. This will lead to an increase in milk self-sufficiency to 88.2% compared to 81.2% in 2024, when the goal of the Food Security Doctrine is achieved at 90%. In this case, imports will decrease by 18% to 5.8 million tons, and exports will increase by 44% to 1.5 million tons.
At the XVI Congress of the National Union of Milk Producers in January, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev noted that the dairy industry continues to grow steadily - in 2024, approximately 34 million tons of raw milk were produced, and processing is developing. He stressed the need to continue increasing the production of dairy products to achieve the goal of the Food Security Doctrine for milk by 2030, namely to exceed the gross milk yield of 38 million tons. Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut also emphasized the need to increase the dairy herd in agricultural organizations from 2.52 million to 2.89 million heads and to increase the average productivity of breeding cows to 11 tons of milk per year by 2030.
