In the current season, exporters may face a restriction on the government-set quota for the export of wheat and meslin totaling 10.6 million tons. According to information published on the site pole.rf, Dmitry Rylko, the CEO of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), stated that exports within the quota may reach about 9 million tons. The low margin of export operations is the reason for such export volume restrictions. The expert explained that the fall of the dollar and the strong strengthening of the ruble have increased export costs. However, farmers are reluctant to lower prices due to low profitability throughout the season.
Vladimir Petrichenko, the CEO of the analytical company ProZerno, previously expressed the opinion that within the export quota, Russia will be able to supply abroad no more than 7-7.5 million tons of wheat. Export has ceased to play such a significant role in the grain market since the beginning of the year, determining demand and prices as it did before, noted Petrichenko.
During the period from February 15 to April 20, the volume of wheat deliveries decreased by 2.7 times compared to the same period last year (11.4 million tons), according to the Russian Grain Union. Elena Tyurina, the director of the union's analytical department, previously noted that the full quota can be selected if 2 million tons of wheat are exported every month. According to her data, from July 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, 37.2 million tons of wheat were exported. Considering the export potential for the season of 42 million tons and the remaining period of May-June and the 10 days of April, there are approximately 4.8 million tons left, which is about 2 million tons per month.
According to Tyurina's estimates, in April, 1.92 million tons of wheat will be shipped abroad, which is 2.5 times less than in the previous April (5 million tons). The SovEcon Analytical Center suggests that in April, the volume of shipments will amount to 2.2 million tons, which is higher compared to March (1.9 million tons), as the average figure for the five years is 3.5 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture recently redistributed an additional share of the wheat export quota, with the remaining available quota volume being approximately 1.46 million tons.