Production of agricultural products in all farm households in April of the current year increased by 1.4% compared to the previous similar period, as reported by Rosstat. The growth for January-April was 1.6%. In turn, in April 2024, the industry increased its productivity by 2.1%, and over the four months - by 2%. Production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in live weight rose by 0.3% in April, as well as over the first four months of the current year, milk production increased by 0.4%, and eggs - by 5.3% and 4.1% respectively.
According to the main forecast of the medium-term development of the economy and social sphere of Russia until 2028, prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development, this year agricultural production may increase by 4.4%, which coincides with the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture. An optimistic scenario of economic development, compiled by the Ministry of Economic Development, assumes growth at the level of 3.8%.
However, independent expert in the agricultural market, Alexander Korbuth, believes that the forecasts of the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Economic Development regarding the growth of agricultural production are slightly overstated. In his opinion, it is more likely that productivity will increase by 3.5-3.6% compared to last year at comparable prices. "Regarding crop production, I assume that growth will not exceed 5.6%. The harvest of cereals and potatoes will be higher than last year, unless there are any natural disasters. However, a certain decrease in the collection of fruits and berries is expected due to spring frosts and other factors," he commented to the magazine "Agroinvestor". - As for livestock breeding, this industry has reached the limit of development, and further success will depend on exports and prices for export deliveries."
"We are quite cautiously assessing the current year, and the forecasts from the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Economic Development seem extremely optimistic in the conditions of the dominance of negative factors and uncertainty in the agricultural market," noted managing partner Kasatkin Consulting Dmitry Kasatkin. - It is expected that in 2025, in comparable prices, the market will either remain at the level of 2024, or will slightly (by 0.5%) decrease. Among the negative factors, he named the influence of the key rate, reduction in state subsidies, deterioration of logistics infrastructure (both within the country and abroad), weather conditions at the beginning of the year, restrictions in external markets, strengthening of the ruble, lack of qualified personnel, aging equipment, and supply problems.
Managing Director of the Center of Competence in Agriculture "Rexoft Consulting" Dmitry Krasnov predicts that the industry's growth by the end of the year will be 2%. The overall annual result will largely depend on successes in crop production, which occupies the main share in the total volume of agricultural production, and assessments of grain harvesting currently have significant discrepancies, according to him in a conversation with the publication "Agroinvestor". "Today, it is more important to see the long-term perspective, as farmers, disappointed in the profitability of grain crops, are trying to reduce their share in plantings, reorienting to oilseeds," he emphasized. - However, changing the structure of plantings always requires changes in production technologies and, therefore, additional investments in updating equipment, trailers, and other equipment. In the current economic conditions, most agricultural entrepreneurs are not ready for this."
