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After a long period of cautious approach, the world's largest importer of corn and soybeans has increased the approval of several GM seed varieties over the past two years to promote the use of bioengineered crops through GM technology as a means of enhancing food security, according to Reuters.
According to CITICS Research and three sources in the seed industry who spoke anonymously to Reuters due to the sensitivity of the issue in China, the area planted with GM corn this year is expected to increase to 40-50 million mu (3.3 million hectares) compared to approximately 10 million mu in 2024.
Although not directly related to the trade war between the US and China, the desire to grow more GM corn could reduce China's need for imports and provide Beijing with a new tool in its trade battle with President Donald Trump. Last year, the US accounted for 15% of corn imports to China.
"Even with an increase in GM corn planting areas, it will still account for only 7% of the total corn planting area in China compared to over 90% in agricultural powerhouses such as the US or Brazil. China could quickly reach a similar level by adopting GM technologies, but Beijing tends to be cautious due to entrenched consumer and farmer skepticism," Reuters writes.
"The acceptance of GM crops in the Chinese market depends on two key factors: the demonstrated benefits of increased yields and cost-effectiveness for farmers, and Beijing's ability to coordinate commercial deployment amidst lingering public skepticism," said Reuters' Matthew Nicoll, senior analyst at China Policy research group.
China imports over 100 million tons of corn and soybeans annually, mainly from Brazil and the US, predominantly GM varieties for animal feed, while non-GM crops are grown domestically for human consumption.
Analysts and an official representative of the seed industry estimate that genetically modified crops designed to increase yields or resistance to drought and pests could boost yields by 6-13%.
"However, according to three sources familiar with the introduction process of this technology, several recent trials of GM corn did not show the desired level of increased yields, disappointing some farmers who were initially skeptical. According to the sources, in some regions where first-generation GM corn trials were conducted in 2022-2023, yields decreased by 10-20%. Problems arose, as indicated by the three industry sources, because the seeds were not fully suitable for local conditions or were introduced to the market too hastily without an adequate amount of backcrossing, where a hybrid plant is crossed with a parental one to develop desired traits," the Reuters article states.
The results of these trials have not been published, as Matthew Nicoll of Reuters stated. There was no response from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture to Reuters' request for comments.
"If seed companies fail to improve agronomic yield metrics even with trials, trust in the GM strategy may come into question, slowing down the adoption of this technology in Beijing," said Nicoll Reuters, adding that overall demand from corn producers, especially in the northeast of the country, is high for GM seeds."
This month, China's Ministry of Agriculture called on provinces to take strict measures against illegal production and sale of GM seeds.
According to Even Rogers Pei, an agricultural analyst at Trivium China, as GM seed plantings transition from small pilot plots to large-scale cultivation, yields may initially decline as farmers adapt to new varieties. "Regulators will halt this plan if any serious problems arise. But assuming that new varieties continue to demonstrate advantages over previous ones, it can be confidently said that the areas planted with GMOs in China will expand. Once the genie is out of the bottle, it won't return."
