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The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has reduced its forecast for wheat harvest by 1.6 million tons to 82.2 million tons, according to the Interfax news agency. The estimate for barley harvest has been lowered by 0.4 million tons to 16.8 million tons, and for corn by 1.1 million tons to 12 million tons. IKAR's General Director Dmitry Rylko noted that the total grain harvest may reach 125 million tons, which is 3.5 million tons less than previously expected. Last year, the grain harvest amounted to 144.9 million tons, including 92.8 million tons of wheat.
Rylko stated that the main factors influencing the change in harvest forecasts were the rains in the Volga region, the Urals, and Siberia, as well as drought in the South. He also added that the wheat export forecast for the 2024/25 season has been reduced by 0.5 million tons to 44 million tons, and the total grain export forecast by 2 million tons to 53 million tons. Last year, Russia exported a record 72.2 million tons of grain, including 54.1 million tons of wheat.
Last week, the analytical company ProZerno lowered its grain harvest forecast by 2 million tons to 126 million tons excluding new regions. The decrease in the forecast is mainly related to corn, which may amount to 12.4 million tons, whereas analysts previously estimated the collection potential at 14.74 million tons. The barley production estimate has been reduced from 17.5 million tons to 17.15 million tons. At the same time, the wheat harvest forecast has been slightly increased from 82.55 million tons to 82.8 million tons. This is an optimistic scenario, and final figures may be worse, ProZerno warns.
The analytical center SovEcon also revised its wheat harvest forecast, reducing it from 83.3 million tons to 82.5 million tons. Analysts reported that the significant decrease in the forecast is largely due to lower spring wheat yields in some regions of the Center and Volga regions.
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev stated at a meeting on the situation in the agricultural sector that the Ministry of Agriculture maintains its forecast for grain harvest at the level of 132 million tons. Currently, more than 93 million tons have already been harvested, including 70.5 million tons of wheat. Patrushev noted that adverse weather conditions in the South, Central Russia, and the Volga region are affecting the final volumes.
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