Прогноз урожая зерна снижен: откуда такие изменения и каковы последствия для экспорта?

By the end of October 2024, Russia has increased its export of sunflower oil to India to 1.8 million tons, which is twice as much as the previous year. India has become the main importer, acquiring 43% of the total volume, followed by Turkey at 15% and China at 13%.

In the current season, India plans to import 3.4 million tons of sunflower oil, while Russia is strengthening its position in the market.

At the "Pig Farming-2024" conference, the general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Conjunction discussed plans to increase processing of oilseeds that require additional planting areas. The crop yields are differently evaluated: sunflower will decrease, while rapeseed and soybean will reach record levels. Prices for meal are decreasing, raising questions about the quality of soybean. Russian producers of rapeseed meal will face changes in market channels due to the export ban to the EU.

The corporate group is planning to build a grain and container terminal in Iran for grain deliveries from Russia. The costs for the project will amount to 10 billion rubles for the grain terminal and 7 billion rubles for the container terminal. The construction is planned to be completed by 2027.

The organization is also working on a similar terminal in the Trans-Baikal Territory.

The National Commodity Exchange has launched a test calculation of new exchange indices for sunflower seeds, rapeseed, and margarine. The indices display prices per 1 ton of the product. The calculations are based on NTB auction prices including VAT. Market interest in the new indices is planned to be evaluated.

The USMCA Trade Commission has deemed Mexico's ban on genetically modified corn from the USA as illegal. Mexico disagrees with the decision, stating that it is based on health protection. The appointment of Mexico's new president has not influenced the decision to maintain the ban.

India extends the temporary ban on futures trading of key agricultural commodities until January 2025. SEBI has shortened the ban by one month, signaling a possible resumption of futures trading at the beginning of next year. The decision has a positive impact on the oilseeds market in the country.

Production of soybeans in the EU has decreased due to poor weather conditions. The European Commission has reduced the forecast to 2.8 million tons, which is 10,000 tons less than the previous year. In Romania, the harvest has decreased by 44%, reaching 171,000 tons. Hungary has increased production by 50%, but yields remain below average. Italian companies have reduced soybean imports by 5%. Sunflower crop in the Balkans is also expected to be low due to bad weather.

In Kazakhstan, the harvesting of oilseeds, including sunflower, has been successfully completed. The gross yield has increased by 46% compared to the previous year, however, the prices for seeds are rising due to their shortage. This leads to a decrease in the profitability of oil plants, but will allow farmers to increase revenue in the next season.

The "Forkagro" team congratulates you on the New Year! May 2025 bring abundant harvests, stable development, and good health. May the year bring joy, success, and quality time with your loved ones. Best wishes, Team "Forkagro".

The Russian government has established a tariff quota for the export of sunflower seeds from the Zabaikalsky Krai: 9300 tons until August 31, 2025. The regulation comes into effect in 7 days.

The US Department of Agriculture has not changed the forecast for wheat harvest in Russia - 83 million tonnes. Wheat exports from Russia will remain at 48 million tonnes, while the forecast for corn production has been reduced to 13.5 million tonnes. Forecasts for Ukrainian and Kazakh wheat remain unchanged. The global wheat harvest forecast has decreased to 796.88 million tonnes.

In Krasnodar region, sugar beet yield has decreased from 552 to 352 c/ha. In Voronezh region, 27 thousand hectares were replanted due to frosts, resulting in a yield of 389 c/ha. In Kursk, 4.4 million tons were harvested with a yield of 450 c/ha. Lipetsk region obtained 4.1 million tons due to frosts and drought. Orel region increased the yield by 57 thousand tons, while Tambov region harvested 4.5 million tons.

In the Rostov Region, due to lack of rains, less than 10% of winter crops have already sprouted for the 2025 harvest, while the rest are at the tillering stage due to lack of moisture in the soil. Authorities are considering support options for agricultural producers in case of crop failure. This year, due to drought, farmers lost 50,000 hectares of crops, resulting in damage worth 5 billion rubles.

Swine production in Russia is planned to increase by 25% by 2030, reaching 7.19 million tons live weight. Investments in expanding production and primary meat processing are estimated at 72 billion rubles. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to attract 15,000 specialists in animal husbandry.