During the reporting week from 07.03.25 to 14.03.25, global wheat prices demonstrated an increase. Prices for various types of wheat rose:
- Hard Red Winter Wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZW) rose to 557.00 cents/bushel (+4.36%);
- Hard Red Winter Wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT, KE) increased to 586.00 cents/bushel (+6.30%);
- Hard Red Spring Wheat on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE, MWE) grew to 601.75 cents/bushel (+4.11%);
The corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZC) rose to 458.50 cents/bushel (+0.71%). The price of rice in Chicago (CBOT, ZR) increased to $13.43/cwt (+1.44%).
Russian indicative export prices (FOB Black Sea):
- wheat rose to $244.30/ton (+0.87%);
- barley remained unchanged at $204.00/ton (+0.00%);
- corn stayed at $220.90/ton (+0.00%);
The Russian wheat index CPT Novorossiysk increased to 18344 rubles/ton (+1.04%).
Internal purchasing prices for 4th class wheat with 12.5% protein at port elevators of the Black and Azov Seas for the reporting period are as follows:
- Azov – 16700 (0) rubles/ton
- Novorossiysk – 18950 (-100) rubles/ton
- Rostov-on-Don – 16700 (0) rubles/ton
- Taman – 17700 (-100) rubles/ton
GRAIN MARKET NEWS
• As of March 14, Russian farmers have completed sowing activities on almost 100,000 hectares. The sowing campaign is currently underway in 19 Russian regions, including Krasnodar Krai, Rostov Oblast, and Stavropol Krai. The total sowing area will reach 84 million hectares, exceeding last year's figures. Nearly 87% of winter crops are in good condition, compared to 82% at the beginning of the year.
• Winter fieldwork is progressing well, but the situation with spring crop plantings is causing concern, reports the Institute for Agricultural Market Conditions (IKAR). Analysts note that in some key agricultural regions, there is a lack of precipitation, and there are no clear signs of improvement yet. Deputy Prime Minister Patrushev noted that water scarcity may occur in southern and central parts of Russia, complicating farmers' work.
• The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia forecasts grain harvest of 145 million tons by the end of 2025, based on the approved crop structure. This estimate was presented by Rosselkhozbank, while the Ministry has not officially announced the projected harvest volume. According to the bank's forecast, this year's harvest will increase not only due to weather conditions but also due to an expansion of sown areas. The minimum grain and legume harvest in 2025 will be 139 million tons, and the maximum - 145 million tons.
• The return of snow cover is expected in the Central Federal District due to cooling, and the melting of snow in the Volga region is slowing down, according to the Hydrometeorological Center. A temperature drop of nearly 15 degrees is expected in Krasnodar Krai later this week.
• The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation distributed additional export quotas for wheat this year, which took effect from February 15. The main part of the quota was allocated to 219 companies in February. 9 companies received an additional 26.7 thousand tons. The total quota volume for this year is 10.6 million tons.
• The US Department of Agriculture has once again reduced its forecast for wheat exports from Russia by 0.5 million tons to 45 million tons. The grain harvest forecast in Russia for the current agricultural year has been slightly increased to 81.6 million tons (+0.1 million tons).
• In March, Russian wheat exports may decrease threefold compared to last year due to exporters' negative margins and the low competitiveness of Russian wheat, reports the analytical center "SovEcon". Russian farmers are not rushing to sell wheat, expecting better prices. The level of farmers' grain stocks is relatively low.
• The cost of renting grain hopper cars reached a three-year minimum in January 2025. The reasons for this decrease are a reduction in exports and grain transportation by rail in all directions, as well as a decrease in the popularity of these cars.
• From March 19, 2025, customs duties on all types of grain crops will be reduced.
BELARUS
• As of March 14, early spring cereals and leguminous crops were sown on an area of 17.3 thousand hectares, which is 2.86% of the plan. Sowing is taking place in 5 out of 6 regions of the country.
UKRAINE
• Farmers are actively engaged in sowing early spring crops. As of March 13, 83 thousand hectares of spring cereals and legumin