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It is expected that the total amount of collected main oil crops in Russia will be around 28 million tons, which is 0.2 million tons less than last year. This forecast was presented by the analytical center Rusagrotrans, noting that this value will be achieved due to an increase in sown areas, despite a decrease in yield. This year, the area sown with oil crops is 18.86 million hectares, which is more than the 17.6 million hectares last year. These figures do not include calculations for new regions. The Ministry of Agriculture also estimates the production of oil crops this year at the level of 28 million tons.
In particular, the production of sunflower may decrease to 15.8 million tons after record levels of 17.3 million tons last year. The sown area of the crop decreased by 63 thousand hectares, totaling 9.75 million hectares. Although the sunflower sown area has decreased slightly, the overall yield reduction could be significant due to poor weather conditions prevailing in the southern regions, where drought persists, analysts added.
In particular, soil drought has been recorded in sunflower fields in seven districts of the Rostov Oblast, according to the Regional Agrochemical Service. During the crop inspections, the development of a dangerous disease - dry root rot - was also detected, which could lead to a loss of up to 20% of the crop, warned the Rosselkhozcenter.
The analytical center of the breeding company Ruseed predicts that the total amount of sunflower harvested in Russia this year will be no less than 15.6 million tons, excluding new regions. Analysts believe that this sector of agriculture will remain one of the most profitable and predict an increase in its value. According to their estimates, an increase in the sown area of sunflower is expected next year.
The increase in the soybean sown area to record levels in the Central and Volga Federal Districts, according to Rosstat, will compensate for the decrease in yield of this crop. As a result, the harvested crop may increase by 0.4 million tons compared to last year, reaching 7.2 million tons, predict Rusagrotrans analysts. A similar situation is observed with rapeseed, whose yield reduction is compensated by expanding sown areas by 2.73 million hectares, mainly in Siberia, the Central, and Volga regions. The total amount of harvested rapeseed may reach a record 5 million tons, which is 0.8 million tons more than in 2023.
According to the report of the Price Index Center, based on analysts' surveys, it is expected that the sunflower yield this year will be 15.8 million tons, which is 0.4 million tons lower than the previous estimate. The soybean production forecast has been increased from 6.6 million tons to 7.2 million tons, and for rapeseed from 4.2 million tons to 4.6 million tons. The sunflower oil production forecast remains unchanged at 7.1 million tons, and its export has been increased by 0.1 million tons to 4.7 million tons in the 2024 season.
