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One month after the suspension of the grain deal, Turkey is making efforts to revive the Istanbul agreements, which caused dissatisfaction from Russia due to the non-fulfillment of its part of the agreements. The mediated meeting between Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin is considered crucial. However, before that, Turkey is looking for additional arguments and proposals for Moscow. Budapest became the center of grain discussions on August 20, when leaders of various countries gathered there to celebrate Hungary's national holiday. Hungary, with its position on the Ukrainian crisis, attracted international attention.
Arriving in Budapest were the presidents of Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, as well as Mr. Erdogan, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and Rustam Minnikhanov. The presence of these leaders sparked special interest, as the Bild newspaper reported the possible preparation of a new grain agreement between Turkey, Russia, and Qatar. This information was based on diplomatic correspondence between Moscow and Ankara, which has not been confirmed by either party yet.
Unofficially, Moscow had warned Ankara in advance about exiting the grain deal, and now the parties, with Qatar's participation, are working on a new trilateral agreement on the export of Russian grain to poor countries, mainly in Africa. In this scheme, Turkey will play the role of organizer, and Qatar - the sponsor.
However, the new agreement cannot replace the initiative proposed by Ankara, Moscow, and Doha, as it does not solve the issue with Ukrainian grain. Nevertheless, it could serve as an argument in favor of restoring the Istanbul agreements. According to the German Bild newspaper, the Turkish Foreign Minister is simultaneously persuading Russia to resume the previous deal, ensuring access to Ukrainian grain on the global markets. Ankara proposes acting under the auspices of the UN, and the agreement would be concluded in Budapest, where representatives of the three countries gathered.
There are no official comments yet on the possible new grain deal. However, the head of Tatarstan, Rustam Minnikhanov, is in Hungary, which gives him the opportunity to discuss this issue with potential deal participants.
Experts cautiously comment on the possible new agreement based on press information. Qatar will pay for grain supplies, while Turkey will organize the process, but there is no clarity yet on the roles of Russia and other participants. Russia is not expected to provide free shipments, but it has been offered to supply up to 300,000 tons of grain to African countries for free. Tatarstan could be involved in this deal as it is an adjacent territory and has close relations with Turkey and Qatar. The new deal could bring image benefits to all countries, and each side will find its advantages in this deal.
The United States is also actively working on reviving the grain initiative, which Moscow left in July. There are also signs of the Romanian direction, which is an important route for Ukraine for grain exports through the Danube and overland.
The Prime Minister of Romania expressed the intention of his country to ensure the export of 60% of Ukrainian grain by optimizing navigation through the Sulina (Romania) and Bystroe (Ukraine) canals. The online resource Marine Traffic notes a high intensity of navigation in the Danube Delta. The main vessels are cargo ships.
Experts link the US activity to the importance of the Romanian direction for Ukraine. The Danube is a key channel for their grain exports, and America is actively promoting this story about a food crisis and the need for action. However, there are currently restrictions on the import of Ukrainian grain into some EU countries.
Rustam Minnikhanov, the head of Tatarstan, during his visit to Hungary, had the opportunity to discuss this situation with potential participants in the new deal. It is also worth noting that the Romanian grain export route is not entirely safe as Russia targeted port and other infrastructure in Izmail and Reni after exiting the grain deal.
Overall, the situation regarding possible grain deals continues to develop, and it remains unclear what the final decisions will be. But it is important to note that the escalation of tension in the Black Sea could have serious consequences for grain exports and imports.
