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Climate change may provide new opportunities to increase ecosystem productivity in agriculture and forestry, despite the increasing fire hazard and frequency of adverse agrometeorological events. This is the situation outlined in the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 with a forecast until 2036, approved by the government.
According to the document, the average annual near-surface air temperature in Russia has been increasing by an average of 0.5 degrees Celsius every 10 years since the mid-1970s, and in the Arctic zone by 0.7 degrees. These values are 2.8 times higher than the global trend. By 2050, the annual average temperature may be 2 to 3.3 degrees higher compared to the beginning of the 21st century. In addition, an increase in annual precipitation by 8-12% is expected. A reduction in the area covered by permafrost by 15-38% is also projected.
"Changes in the climatic conditions of agricultural crops, an increase in the frequency and duration of heatwaves, a decrease in the bearing capacity of permafrost rocks, as well as other changes in climatic characteristics," note the authors of the strategy.
Despite the negative consequences of climate change, they may also present new opportunities, and successful utilization of these opportunities will contribute to the socio-economic development of the regions of the Russian Federation.
These opportunities include:
- increased ecosystem productivity in agriculture and forestry (even with the increasing fire hazard in forests and frequency of adverse agrometeorological events);
- expansion of the transit potential of the Northern Sea Route and inland waterways.
Earlier, the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia reported that the warm weather in January throughout Russia contributes to worsening conditions for wintering crops.
