Prices for sugar continue to fall due to increasing production: a global surplus is predicted.

The sugar market in New York and London closed with a decrease in prices due to the excess production in Brazil, improved weather forecasts in India and Thailand, and expectations of a global surplus in the next season.

Analysts predict an excess of 1.2 million tons in 2024/25, which contradicts previous forecasts.

29 July 2024

On Friday, trading for October NY World Sugar #11 (SBV24) closed with a negative result of -0.24 (-1.29%). Meanwhile, October London ICE White Sugar #5 (SWV24) ended with a decrease of -4.70 (-0.88%), according to Barchart.

In New York, sugar prices continue to fall and have reached their lowest levels in the last year and four months. The drop is attributed to increasing sugar production volumes in Brazil, improving rainfall forecasts in India and Thailand, as well as estimates of excess global sugar production in the 2024/25 season.

Recently, sugar prices showed a temporary increase following Unica's report of a 9.7% reduction in sugar production volumes in Brazil in the first half of July, down to 2.939 million tons. However, from the beginning of the marketing year to mid-July, the total sugar stock in this region increased by 10.4%, reaching 17.140 million tons.

StoneX company has forecasted a global sugar surplus of 1.2 million tons in the 2024/25 season, which is lower than their previous surplus estimate of 4.6 million tons for the 2023/24 season. Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 182 thousand tons in 2024/25, significantly different from their previous forecast of a deficit of 2.6 million tons and a surplus of 3.5 million tons in the 2023/24 season.

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