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In the last week of February, prices for wheat with a protein content of 12.5% within Russia strengthened, but export prices remain unchanged, reports the analytical center "Rusagrotrans."
Export prices for Russian wheat (with 12.5% protein) for delivery in March stabilized at $252 per ton FOB. Prices for Romanian wheat decreased to $244 per ton (-$6), French wheat to $237 per ton (-$7), American wheat to $238 per ton (-$14), while Argentine wheat increased to $241 per ton (+$2).
Tunisia held a tender to purchase wheat for delivery in March-April. The lowest offer was $262.12 per ton CNF, which is equivalent to around $235 per ton for wheat with 11.5% protein on an FOB Novorossiysk basis.
Analysts claim that news of negotiations between Ukraine and the USA, as well as damage to ships in the port of Odessa, will impact the rise of exchange prices in the new week. The wheat futures market continued to decline last week. The May futures CBOT in Chicago ended the week, reaching a monthly minimum of $204 per ton (-8% from the previous week's close). The May MATIF contract decreased to $238 per ton (-3%).
In deep-water ports, prices for wheat with a protein content of 12.5% remained unchanged compared to the previous week, at 18,000-18,200 rubles per ton without VAT. Prices for delivery CPT to Novorossiysk by rail amounted to 18,800-19,200 rubles per ton (-150 rubles).
Prices within Russia
As indicated in the materials, the morning wheat market slightly strengthened during the week.
Prices for wheat (4th class, 12.5% protein, EXW elevator) are as follows:
- In the South — around 16,000-16,500 rubles per ton without VAT (on average +50 rubles).
- In the Center — 15,700-16,000 rubles per ton (on average unchanged).
- In the Volga region — 15,800-16,200 rubles per ton (+150 rubles).
- In Siberia — 12,000-12,500 rubles per ton (+150 rubles).
The volume of wheat exports in February 2025, including EAEU countries, amounted to only 1.9 million tons.
"This is the lowest level for this month in five years (the previous minimum was in February 2020 — 1.93 million tons)," analysts note.
It is forecasted that wheat exports in March 2025 will amount to 1.5-1.7 million tons. This is the lowest level since March 2021 when 1.02 million tons were exported during the period of an export duty of 50 EUR per ton.
"Such a sharp decline in exports is due to the negative profitability for exporters at current domestic prices and levels of external demand," the materials state.
