Prices for sunflower seeds and oil have reached their peak in Russia, with expectations of a decrease due to changes in the global market.

Prices for sunflower seeds and oil continued to rise last week. In the European part of the country, the purchase price of oil increased by 1-2 thousand rubles and reached 90.4-92.4 thousand rubles per ton, depending on the region. Sales prices also increased by 1-3 thousand rubles to 92-93.8 thousand rubles per ton. These data were obtained from the OilWorld portal. Export prices for sunflower oil (FOB) in December are $1.12 thousand per ton, up by $5, while demand prices are $1.1 thousand per ton, up by $15. Purchase prices for sunflower seeds increased by 2-3 thousand rubles to 40.1-41.1 thousand rubles per ton, depending on the region, with sales prices rising by 1-3 thousand rubles to 40.5-42.1 thousand rubles per ton.

According to the analytical company "ProZerno," last week the average price per ton of sunflower seeds was 44.125 thousand rubles including VAT and increased by 270 rubles per week. ProZerno's CEO, Vladimir Petrichenko, notes a slowdown in the rate of increase. Price stability for oil has been maintained on the export market for two weeks now - $1120 per ton plus or minus $5, and on the domestic market at 105-108 thousand rubles per ton. Petrichenko notes that the stability of the ruble price for oil would have been maintained if not for fluctuations in the exchange rate. He also mentions that prices for sunflower seeds and sunflower oil on the domestic market have reached their peak but are now starting to fall due to changes in the global market and an increase in the export duty on sunflower oil.

The head of the Fat-and-Oil Union, Mikhail Maltsev, also confirms that internal prices for sunflower seeds and oil are at their peak. However, a change in the situation is now occurring considering global oil prices and the increase in the export duty on sunflower oil. Prices for oil in the Black Sea basin and European ports have decreased by 20-30 dollars per ton over the past week. Prices for rapeseed oil in China have fallen by 70 dollars per ton over the past two weeks, and soybean oil prices continue to decline in India, down by 15 dollars per ton per week.

Maltsev notes that against this backdrop, at the beginning of the week, sunflower prices in Ukraine started to decline for the first time since the beginning of the harvest. Ukrainian processors are buying for a short period, expecting further price reductions. Maltsev also predicts a massive reversal in oilseed prices in Russia.

Oleoscop, an analytical agency, reports that prices on the domestic market are still high, but a change in trend is expected in the near future due to changes in the global market. Export prices for sunflower oil in the Black Sea basin have decreased by $50 per ton over the past week, with contracts for delivery in December fixing a maximum price of around $1.255 thousand per ton. The minimum price in the Black Sea basin is $1 thousand per ton. Ukrainian analytical agencies also note a decrease in prices for sunflower oil in European ports by 20-30 dollars per ton.

Oleoscop analyst Liliya Varygina notes that prices are also falling for other vegetable oils. Soybean oil prices on the Chicago exchange have fallen by 5% over two sessions. Palm oil prices have fallen by 1.3% in a week, with December CPO futures in China hitting a three-week low. She also believes that over time, an expected increase in the export duty on sunflower oil will occur on the domestic market.

According to a source from "Agroinvestor," sunflower seeds continue to rise in price. In the southern regions of Russia, some plants are buying sunflower seeds for around 50 thousand rubles per ton including VAT, although most enterprises are not raising purchase prices to such levels. However, oilseeds remain very expensive, including in the Central Federal District. The situation is somewhat better in the Volga region.

An informant from "Agroinvestor" states that oil continues to support price growth, as well as the current situation with the exchange rate. The main problem lies with the export duty in December. Processors expect an increase, possibly up to 10 thousand rubles per ton, and assume that this will affect the current sunflower price. However, in conditions of reduced raw material supply in the current season and strong competition for raw materials, the situation is unlikely to change rapidly. However, there is a decrease in oil prices in the global market, and the peaks reached in recent weeks, especially for soybean and palm oil, are likely to be reflected in the sunflower complex in Russia.