In the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture for June, the forecast for wheat production in Russia for the new agricultural year (July 2024 - June 2025) was reduced by a whole 5 million tons, reaching 83 million. The estimate of remaining stocks was also reduced from 7.99 million to 7.74 million tons.
The forecast for wheat exports from Russia was also reduced by 4 million tons and now stands at 48 million tons, compared to the number stated in the May report.
The forecast for corn production in the new agricultural season was reduced to 15.4 million tons, compared to 16 million tons last month. The projected volume of corn exports is 5 million tons, a decrease of 200 thousand. Reserves are estimated at 0.41 million tons, which is 500 thousand less than the previous estimate.
The production of feed grains decreased from 41.53 million to 40.43 million tons. The expected export volume is 10.2 million tons, with reserves amounting to 1.22 million tons.
The wheat export forecast for Russia's main competitor - the European Union - increased by 1 million tons to 35 million tons. At the same time, the wheat production forecast in the EU was reduced by 1.5 million tons to 130.5 million tons.
Wheat exports from Ukraine are expected to reach 13 million tons, which is 1 million less than the previous forecast. At the same time, the forecast for wheat production was reduced to 19.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million. Reserves decreased from 1.06 million to 0.96 million tons. The corn production forecast increased by 700 thousand tons to 27.7 million tons, with corn exports growing to 24.5 million tons.
The wheat harvest estimate in Kazakhstan remains unchanged at 14.5 million tons, and exports also remain stable at 10.5 million tons. Reserves are estimated at 2.18 million tons.
The global wheat production forecast for the next agricultural year was reduced to 790.75 million tons, a decrease of 7.44 million. The forecast for coarse grains is 1,511.19 billion tons, slightly lower than in the previous report. And the corn forecast reaches 1,220.54 billion tons.
It is worth noting that the data in the USDA report do not include information on Crimea and new territories.