Bulgaria is facing a catastrophic corn harvest due to the hot summer: exports and production may decrease.

This year, the season of spring crop harvesting in Bulgaria has ended, and it is saddening to note that the negative forecasts regarding the harvest have proven to be correct. The summer turned out to be the hottest and driest in the entire history of observations, which led to a significant decrease in the yields of corn and sunflower seeds, with corn being particularly affected. Since Bulgaria is one of the key exporters of these products to the EU, it is expected that this decline will impact the market situation in the region, especially for sunflower seeds. This information is reported by LVVN Attaché with reference to the Ministry of Agriculture of Bulgaria.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Bulgaria, corn yields decreased by 35% compared to the previous year and by 50% compared to the 5-year average, reaching 2.73 tons/ha. With a 5% reduction in acreage, the corn harvest this season is 38% lower than in 2023, amounting to around 1.4 million tons. As of the end of October, export volumes are only about 8400 tons, which is just 7% of the volumes shipped during the same period the previous year. Reserves amount to 1.4 million tons, which is 27% lower than in 2023.

Spring crops in Bulgaria bring high profitability, and grain producers are actively expanding the areas under cultivation for these crops. Bulgaria also has large capacities for processing corn and sunflower seeds, which has allowed the country to become an important supplier of processed corn and high value-added oil products. However, due to climate change, summers in Bulgaria are becoming increasingly dry and hot, posing a challenge for producers.

Despite significant progress in adapting spring crops to the climate, such as using more suitable varieties and cultivation methods like no-till farming, the main limiting factor remains irrigation, which makes these crops vulnerable to hot summer climates. Over the past decades, much of the irrigation infrastructure in the country has been abandoned or taken out of operation, leading to a reduction in irrigated areas, including key regions where spring crops are grown.

Rebuilding the irrigation infrastructure is a top priority for the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of Bulgaria in its domestic policy. Bulgaria plans to increase irrigated areas fourfold in the coming years. If these plans are implemented, spring crops will become important agricultural crops with the potential for significant production increase, contributing to Bulgaria's position in the European grain and oilseed market.

Unlike spring crops, Bulgaria harvested a good crop of winter wheat this year - almost 6.8 million tons. However, Bulgarian wheat producers faced challenges this year. An oversupply on the global market and the normalization of regional supplies after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are keeping prices low, forcing Bulgarian producers and traders to delay sales. As of the end of October, there are 4.6 million tons of grain in storage, which represents 68% of the 2024 harvest and is 12% more than in the same period the previous year. This strategy has become popular in the last 10-15 years, peaking in 2022 when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine began with a sharp rise in grain prices. Therefore, a surge in Bulgarian grain sales can be expected in the second quarter of 2025, when warehouses need to be cleared before the new harvest.