Russian market - Winter crops - Incubator

Grain trading on Russian exchanges on November 20, 2024: 14 contracts for the purchase of wheat were concluded, with a total sales volume of 4150 tons and an average price of 17798 ₽ per ton.

In the Rostov region, winter wheat is falling behind due to rains. Monitoring the condition of plants, diseases, and pests. So far, the situation with mice and cereal leaf beetles is under control. The harvest depends on the weather, specialists are conducting monitoring.

It is projected that grain harvest in Russia will exceed 139.5 million tons by 2025, with a yield reaching 29 quintals per hectare. The implementation of modern technologies and government support contribute to increasing crop yields without expanding farmland.

In the Russian grain exchanges on November 18, 2024, 13 wheat contracts were sold, with a total volume of 3850 tons. The average price per ton was 17889 rubles (178.9 dollars). Prices at auctions ranged from 17000 to 18400 rubles per ton.

Rosstat reported that as of November 1, Russia has harvested 124.3 million tons of grain, which is 16.7 million tons less than last year. The grain harvest area has remained almost the same: harvested from 94.7% compared to 94.3% last year.

In addition to grain, other crops have also been harvested: sunflower, sugar beets, potatoes, and vegetables.

In the north of Siberia, the Far East, and the Urals, cold weather down to minus 30 degrees is expected, while in the south of Western Siberia there will be high temperatures. It will be especially cold in Taymyr and Chukotka. In other regions, temperatures will return to around zero.

The company "SovEcon" has increased the forecast for wheat harvest in Russia in 2025 by 1.5 million tonnes to 81.6 million tonnes due to the expansion of sown areas and the yield of winter wheat. The forecast for corn harvest has decreased to 11.5 million tonnes, with the overall grain forecast at 122.3 million tonnes.

The cargo turnover of Russian seaports decreased by 3.2% in January-October 2024, reaching 743 million tons. The transportation of dry cargo decreased by 3.5%, amounting to 370.8 million tons. Export declined by 2.8%, import increased by 9.0%, transit remained unchanged, and cabotage decreased by 13.1%.

On November 11, 2024, 16 wheat contracts with a total volume of 33,850 tons were sold on the Russian grain exchanges. The average price was 17,316 rubles per ton. The goods were delivered by road and rail transport under various conditions.

Sold 4185 tons of grain for 65.5 million rubles.

Soft wheat, 3rd grade, year 2022 - 3510 tons for 55 million rubles.

Wheat, 3rd grade, year 2023 - 675 tons for 10.5 million rubles. (source: zerno.ru)

The Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation has confirmed the forecast for grain harvest this year: the crop is expected to reach 130 million tons, including 83 million tons of wheat. The quality of the grain is higher, which will help maintain the export potential.

The sowing of winter crops continues, with an expected total area of slightly less than 20 million hectares.

The IKAR predicts grain harvest in Russia to reach 130 million tons in 2025. Wheat harvest in 2024 is estimated at 81-85 million tons. Experts are concerned about the delay in the development of winter cereals, but consider the situation not critical. According to other forecasts, wheat crop in 2025 may decrease by 1.7%.