World market - Winter crops - Incubator

A meeting between the UN and Russia on grain and fertilizer supplies may take place in February. The conditions of the memorandum on unlocking exports and other measures have not been met. Talks with the UN team on access to agricultural markets are ongoing.

The "grain deal" has been terminated, as Russia declined to extend its validity.

Iran has purchased 240,000 tons of wheat from Russia through GTC. Prices ranged from 292 euros to 314 dollars per ton on CIF delivery terms to Iranian ports.

Another two batches of 60,000 tons were bought at 323 euros or 347.35 dollars per ton.

Grain prices on November 14, 2024: corn -7.50 ¢/bsh ($4.19), soft wheat -10.75 ¢/bsh ($5.30), hard red wheat HRW -7.75 ¢/bsh ($5.33), hard red spring wheat HRS -4.50 ¢/bsh ($5.66), oats +6.50 ¢/bsh ($3.48), rough rice -0.26 usd/cwt ($14.68).

International wheat prices continued to rise. Prices for soft and hard winter wheat on the CBOT rose, while rice prices fell. In Russia, prices for wheat and barley declined, while corn prices rose. 78% of grains have been harvested, with a total of 105.9 million tons collected. Grain harvest forecasts in Russia are decreasing.

Quotations for wheat at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have fallen to $5.52/bushel due to wet weather in the USA and the strengthening of the dollar.

Precipitation in Kansas has offset the moisture deficit. The export of Russian wheat also affects prices. Rumors about negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may influence the market.

On November 11, 2024, grain prices on exchanges changed:

Corn (CBOT) -1.00 ¢/bsh (430.00 ¢/bsh), Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW) -7.00 ¢/bsh (565.50 ¢/bsh), Hard Red Wheat (HRW) -4.75 ¢/bsh (559.50 ¢/bsh), Hard Red Spring Wheat (HRS) -5.75 ¢/bsh (592.00 ¢/bsh), Oats -15.75 ¢/bsh (345.75 ¢/bsh), Rough Rice +0.19 usd/cwt (14.55 usd/cwt).

Jordan has bought more than 240,000 tons of barley from Russia in the first 8 months of 2024, according to "Agroexport" center. This is 4 times more than the previous year. Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China are the largest importers of barley from Russia.

The forecast of the International Grain Council: the global grain production in 2024/2025 will reach 2.3154 billion tons (+500 thousand tons), wheat production will decrease to 798 million tons. In Russia, a decrease in grain production is expected, but an increase in exports. In the European Union, the grain harvest will decrease to 263.7 million tons, and exports will fall to 43.4 million tons. Kazakhstan expects stable figures for grain production and exports.

The world prices for wheat and corn have decreased: in Chicago wheat -4.41%, in Kansas -6.00%, in Minneapolis -4.33%, corn -2.78%. Russian prices: wheat $213.90/ton, barley $184.50/ton, corn $189.20/ton. The grain harvest is expected to be 132 million tons, with exports reaching 52.5 million tons, including 43.7 million tons of wheat. Weather conditions are affecting the harvest.

Corn on the CBOT rose to 426.25 ¢/bsh, SRW wheat increased to 573.25 ¢/bsh, HRW decreased to 574.00 ¢/bsh, HRS fell to 605.50 ¢/bsh, oats reached 391.75 ¢/bsh, and rough rice on the CBOT dropped to 14.46 usd/cwt.

According to @usda report, the forecast for wheat harvest in Russia remains at 83 million tons. Export forecasts stand at 48 million tons. The corn harvest forecast has been reduced to 13.5 million tons, with exports at 3.8 million tons. The EU has reduced wheat export forecasts by 2.5 million tons. Ukraine has increased its wheat export forecast. Kazakhstan has kept the wheat harvest forecast at 16 million tons. The global wheat harvest forecast has been lowered to 796.88 million tons, feed grain - to 1.50245 billion tons, and for corn - 1.21857 billion tons. Minagri USA does not include data for Crimea and new territories.

In the ports of Egypt, 800 thousand tons of wheat got stuck due to a shortage of dollars. This led to an increase in the prices of bread, meat, and animal feed.

The Central Bank of Egypt is taking measures to address the issue following the surge in demand for currency due to the pandemic.