International trade - Incubator

On the 47th week, freight transport rates in the Azov-Black Sea region remained unchanged. Low grain prices are keeping the market in check.

Important: navigation along the Volga-Don Canal will close on November 27, and the export duty on wheat from the Russian Federation will increase.

In October, soybean processing in the USA set a record at 5.44 million tons, exceeding the previous figure by 0.6 million. Soybean oil stocks rose to 680-690 thousand tons, surpassing a 10-year low. Soybean processing volume since the beginning of the agricultural year 2024/25 reached 10.8 million tons, increasing by 5%.

In October 2024, Kazakhstan produced 302 thousand tons of wheat and wheat-rye flour - the highest volume in 10 months, as reported by APK-Inform.

In the Kostanay region, 108.96 thousand tons of this flour were produced. In 10 months of 2024, 2.49 million tons of flour were produced.

Artists in Kazakhstan are facing a problem with selling their rice due to falling prices. It is necessary to find a solution as the market is stagnant. Authorities are discussing the issue and looking for ways to support farmers whose harvest cannot be sold due to the current situation.

China is increasing the import of Kazakh wheat. In 2024, imports have increased by 36%. Kazakhstan holds a leading position, supplying 14% of the wheat. A forum in Astana will discuss trade and prices, with a speech by the director of ZHEJIANG GRAIN GROUP.

Rosselkhozbank predicts grain harvest in Russia in 2025 at the level of 139.5 million tons, thanks to the implementation of modern technologies and government support.

Other forecasts suggest more modest results. The area of sowing and yield will also increase.

Last week, soybean prices declined due to an abundance of the new harvest, leading to market saturation. Demand lowered the prices to the level of 17,200-17,800 UAH/ton and 380-395 USD/ton.

Exports are growing, but soybean processing may slow down due to the situation in the meal market. In November, exports increased by 14% compared to October. Soybean exports are unlimited.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation is extending the ban on the export of rice and rice groats until January 1, 2025 due to a decrease in the yield following an accident in the Krasnodar Region.

Production is expected to increase by 2024, but exports are not planned due to stable prices.

Kazakhstan asks Rosselkhoznadzor to allow the transportation of lentils to Turkey and promises to provide information on quarantine control.

The Russian agency is concerned about the illegal import of sanctioned products from Kazakhstan and initiates an investigation. As a result, cases of document falsification are revealed.

Grain inventory in Russia by October 2024: stocks amounted to 35.6 million tons, which is 16% less than last year. Wheat stocks decreased by 20% to 21.8 million tons, while corn stocks increased by 21% to 4.3 million tons. Source: Rosstat, Grain Online agency.

The FAS USDA forecast: soybean production in China in 2024/25 will increase to 19.9 million tons due to higher yields and expanded planting areas. Imports are projected to reach 104 million tons. Further integration in animal husbandry drives the demand for soybean meal. Brazil remains the primary soy supplier to China, while the US is expected to account for 21% of the total supply.

Tajikistan lacks quality seeds for growing agricultural crops, including wheat and oilseeds. Experts point to problems with working capital, interest rates, electricity supply, and technological backwardness, which slow down the development of the food industry. Modernization of production is necessary for the efficient use of potential. The current development program of the industry costs more than 568.8 million somoni.