Forecast for 2025: The market for agricultural machinery in Russia is expected to experience a new decline of 10%, warns the chairman of the Dealers Association.

In 2024, the sales volume of agricultural machinery in Russia is expected to decrease by 15%, and the following year the market may further decline by 10%. This opinion was expressed by Alexander Altynov, the chairman of the board of the Agricultural Machinery Dealers Association "ASKhOD", in an interview with the magazine pole.rf.

"We will probably see a 15% decrease in agricultural machinery sales," he said.

Speaking about the number of dealers who will leave the Russian market due to financial problems, Altynov noted that the number of departing companies will be around 10-12. However, he pointed out that it all depends on which firms exit the market.

"If they are small companies, then it's a regular story. If they are large firms, then it's a sign of a crisis. Therefore, the situation is not critical now, but we need to pay attention to the quality of the remaining companies," he explained.

According to Altynov, in 2024, agricultural producers did not have enough funds for purchases, so "Rosagrolizing" had a significant impact on the market.

He noted that another important factor affecting the industry is the emergence of numerous Chinese brands seeking their place in the Russian market.

According to his data, last year imported agricultural machinery became more expensive due to the exchange rate, but the cost of production did not change significantly.

"This is another reason for the decrease in revenue. Previously, sales in units decreased, but due to prices, it was still possible to have acceptable profits. Now it's not the same," he noted.

Forecasts for 2025

According to Altynov, in 2025, the economy of most agricultural machinery dealers will be in a fairly poor state.

"Many dealers have financial problems, and a small mistake can lead to bankruptcy. In our country, the criterion for bankruptcy is the absence of equity. By this criterion, I expect that the number of bankruptcies will increase significantly," he stated.

He said that usually only 30-40 out of 650 dealers working in the market are bankrupt, but next year this number could double.

"Maybe there will be 80-90 firms," he explained.

Meanwhile, sales of agricultural machinery will continue to decrease.

"Everyone I talk to makes similar predictions. I also think we may lose another 10% of sales. Many fear that 2025 will be the most challenging year in their history in terms of sales and prices. Dealers will not have the resources to maintain stocks of machinery and spare parts," Altynov believes. He also added that even if farmers are willing to buy machinery, they may not always find the required goods in stock.

Therefore, the planned increase in the utility charge rate seems inappropriate, the expert concluded.

The head of the association assessed the current market situation as difficult due to the decrease in company revenue, margin reduction, and increased expenses, especially salaries and loan servicing.