World market - Winter crops - Fork Cast

A meeting between the UN and Russia on grain and fertilizer supplies may take place in February. The conditions of the memorandum on unlocking exports and other measures have not been met. Talks with the UN team on access to agricultural markets are ongoing.

The "grain deal" has been terminated, as Russia declined to extend its validity.

The forecast of the International Grain Council: the global grain production in 2024/2025 will reach 2.3154 billion tons (+500 thousand tons), wheat production will decrease to 798 million tons. In Russia, a decrease in grain production is expected, but an increase in exports. In the European Union, the grain harvest will decrease to 263.7 million tons, and exports will fall to 43.4 million tons. Kazakhstan expects stable figures for grain production and exports.

The world prices for wheat and corn have decreased: in Chicago wheat -4.41%, in Kansas -6.00%, in Minneapolis -4.33%, corn -2.78%. Russian prices: wheat $213.90/ton, barley $184.50/ton, corn $189.20/ton. The grain harvest is expected to be 132 million tons, with exports reaching 52.5 million tons, including 43.7 million tons of wheat. Weather conditions are affecting the harvest.

World wheat prices vary: they have risen in Chicago, while changes are also observed in Kansas and Minneapolis. Prices for rice, corn, and barley are also fluctuating.

Russian export prices for grain are also changing: wheat has increased, barley has decreased, and corn has risen. Domestic purchase prices for wheat in Russia have decreased. New customs duties will be reduced from July 20.

World wheat prices fluctuated: CBOT fell to 803.25 cents/bushel, KCBT dropped to 934.25 cents/bushel, MGE rose to 951.50 cents/bushel.

Prices for corn and rice increased. Russian prices have also changed. Grain exports continue to grow.

At the Eastern Economic Forum, the Zabaikalsky Grain Terminal was launched for trade between Russia and China. Deputy Prime Minister Trutnev pointed out the issues with cargo registration and the fight against COVID-19, emphasizing the need for control by Rosselkhoznadzor and improvement of cooperation. The terminal addresses transportation problems and enhances delivery speed.

The head of the European Commission promises agricultural producers from Hungary and Poland 100 million euros for lifting the ban on grain imports from Ukraine, urging unity in trade. The EU is preparing a 100 million euro aid package to support farmers. Measures will be introduced and an investigation will be conducted.

The US Department of Agriculture has reduced the forecast for wheat harvest in Russia to 82 million tons, with reserves reaching 7.24 million tons. Wheat exports will remain at 48 million tons. Estimates for the harvest and export of other crops have also been adjusted.

A decrease in the world's wheat and feed grain yield is expected, along with an increase in corn cultivation.

Grain prices on October 11, 2024:

Corn - 415.75 ¢/bsh

Red wheat - 599.00 ¢/bsh

Hard wheat - 604.50 ¢/bsh

Spring wheat - 643.75 ¢/bsh

Oats - 379.75 ¢/bsh

Rough rice - 14.99 usd/cwt

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is concerned that rising food prices due to the conflict in Ukraine could trigger protests in poor countries. She is urging not to impose export restrictions to avoid a crisis.

The disrupted sowing in Ukraine could lead to food shortages and price hikes.

Shortage of fertilizers poses a threat to food security, particularly in Africa. A study by FAO and WTO recommends that G20 countries support the fertilizer market, minimize trade disruptions, and ensure access to them for vulnerable countries.

Global grain reserves are expected to decrease for the sixth consecutive year, with corn volumes declining due to losses in Ukraine, the EU, and the USA.

It is anticipated that global wheat production will remain at last year's level, while trading volumes will decrease due to reduced corn imports in Asia.

Soybean production will increase thanks to yields in South America. The grain price index has remained almost unchanged but remains higher than last year's level.