Monitoring - Incubator

Regions are getting ready for sowing winter crops for the 2025 harvest. An increase in the cost of sowing by 15% is expected. Seeds have become 30% more expensive, fertilizers – 15-25%, and fuel – 15%. Companies will reduce the sowing of winter crops, but do not plan to reduce spring crops. The optimal sowing dates are August 25th.

Production of agricultural products in Russia has increased, with grain threshing up by 46.4%, although the yield is lower. Production of livestock and poultry is also on the rise, with slaughter increasing by 3.2%. Milk production has increased by 0.9%, while egg production decreased by 2%.

The Ministry of Agriculture does not extend the ban on sugar exports after August 31. Preference is given to temporary quotas in case of a sharp decrease in production. Experts agree with this, but call for the cancellation of export duties. Restrictions may be lifted in the near future. The decision depends on the harvest and market situation.

The Union of Grain and Flour Milling Enterprises is concerned about the plans to expand the preferential transportation of flour from Siberia, as this will lead to overproduction and harm producers in other regions. The Committee of the State Duma suggests addressing this issue. Siberian flour is in demand in the global market, with exports growing by 20%. The largest deliveries of flour are made to Afghanistan, China, and Iraq.

Russia plans to export 5.2 million tons of sunflower oil, becoming the second largest exporter in the world after Ukraine. With a decrease in the harvest in Ukraine and an increase in Russia, Russia could become the global leader. Russia's exports are expected to drop to 4.2 million tons in the next season due to duties, according to IKAR. It is important to monitor the situation with crop yields.

Prices for Russian wheat decreased in August-September by 0.5 dollars to 219.5 dollars per ton. Prices for wheat from France, Germany, and the USA also fell. A reduction in global wheat and corn stocks is predicted. Weather is worsening crop conditions in several regions of Russia.

The subcommission has introduced a duty on rapeseed exports at a rate of 30% of the value or no less than 165 euros per ton starting from September 1, 2024.

Additionally, the duties on sunflower seeds and soybeans have been extended until August 31, 2026. The head of the Fat-and-Oil Union supports the measure, believing that it will protect the domestic market.

In Russia, due to unfavorable weather conditions, a decrease in the apple harvest by 30-35% is expected. Prices for apples intended for processing have increased by 30-40%, which will lead to a 20-30% price hike by New Year. To stabilize the situation, the Ministry of Agriculture plans to increase imports.

The Minister of Agriculture has announced the possibility of allocating a separate quota for the export of grain to the Far East, including corn. This will allow corn to be included in the list of exported goods.

Prices for wheat in Russia have risen. In deep-sea ports, prices have increased by 1.9-3.2%, at elevators - by 2.5%. Export prices are at $220-223/ton. The price increase is attributed to the activity of exporters and the growing demand for compound feeds.

Expectations of price growth are shaped by tenders from Algeria and Egypt. According to experts, the influence on prices will be determined by the harvest and the results of tenders.

The Grain Exporters Association has expressed dissatisfaction with the "secret sanctions" against Russian products. The chairman, Eduard Zernin, mentioned the issues at the All-Russian Grain Forum, with a particular emphasis on Switzerland's actions.

Vladimir Putin has agreed to supply grain to Afghanistan, acknowledging the possibility of recognizing the Taliban government.