Forecast: the apple harvest in Russia will decrease by 30-35%, prices will rise by 20-30%. Analysts are making pessimistic forecasts.

Due to unfavorable weather conditions, the harvest of commercial apples in Russia this year may decrease by approximately 30-35% compared to last year. This is forecasted by the CEO of "Technologies of Growth" company Tamara Reshetnikova, referring to analysts from "Agroinvestor". The collection of autumn and winter varieties has not started yet, however, based on the condition of the fruits on the trees, a much smaller harvest is expected, especially in the Central region. Moreover, the quality of apples in almost all regions does not meet the dessert standard.

Tamara Reshetnikova notes that the most unfavorable situation is observed in the quantity of apples in the Lipetsk, Tula, Voronezh, and Belgorod regions. She also mentions recent political events that hinder the collection and preservation of fruits in the Belgorod and Kursk regions. Regarding southern regions, the situation is more favorable: in some regions of the South and the North Caucasus, the harvest will remain at the level of last year, although overall it will decrease by 10-15% across all districts.

The President of the Association of Horticulturists of Russia Igor Mukhanin is more optimistic in his forecasts and believes that horticultural enterprises will gather around 1.7 million tons of commercial fruits. He notes that although in some Central regions the apple harvest is completely absent, other regions compensate for this shortage. In early June, the Ministry of Agriculture reduced the forecast for apple harvest from the planned 1.8 million tons to 1.5 million tons.

Due to the decrease in quality, a significant portion of the apples grown in the Central region for dessert purposes may need to be sold as technical (for processing). It is known that apples for processing are already 30-40% more expensive compared to last year. Reshetnikova considers a price increase for apples in the retail segment inevitable. According to the forecasts of "Technologies of Growth", by New Year, apple prices on the shelves will be 20-30% higher than in the same period last year.

It is noted that the cost of apples for processing has increased by 67% over the year and now amounts to 20 rubles per kilogram. One market participant points to a 45-50% increase in raw material prices to 18.5 rubles per kilogram. Mukhanin confirms that contracts for the supply of technical apples last year were concluded at a price of 14-15 rubles per kilogram, whereas this year the price ranges from 20 rubles per kilogram. In order to maintain retail prices for apples, the Ministry of Agriculture plans to increase their import.