Monitoring - Incubator

Prices for wheat with a protein content of 12.5% in exports are rising: Russian reached $222/ton, French - $240/ton, German - $243/ton, while American decreased to $211/ton. The reasons are poor crops in France, drought in the USA, heavy rainfall in the Baltics.

Exports of Russian wheat have increased to 15.8-15.9 thousand rubles/ton. "Rusagrotrans" has raised the export forecast for July. The export duty has been reduced to 906.4 rubles/ton.

The Ministry of Agriculture can regulate the turnover of mineral fertilizers by expanding its powers without interfering in production. The main goal is to increase the availability of fertilizers and boost exports.

Fertilizer production in Russia has grown by 9% and may reach 70 million tons in the next 5 years.

Export prices for Russian wheat are decreasing due to improved harvest in the USA and deteriorating sowing in France. Wheat purchases by Egypt and Algeria are supporting prices. In Russia, wheat prices have changed over the week: they have decreased at ports, increased on rivers, and remained stable in other regions.

Payouts to crop insurers this year increased by 2.9 times and reached 2.1 billion rubles. The reason was the May frosts, which caused a state of emergency in 11 regions.

The emergency response program proved to be effective, allowing over 2 billion rubles to be paid out to crop growers. The Ministry of Agriculture proposes to reduce the franchise to 30% to improve insurance coverage.

FAS USDA has reduced the forecast for sunflower production in Russia to 16.5 million tons in the 2024/25 season. It is planned to produce 6.7 million tons of oil, with exports reaching 4.15 million tons. Soybeans and rapeseed were also grown. The forecasts for the harvest are ambiguous.

Decreased profitability in agriculture necessitates the consolidation of farms. Agroholdings contribute to the industry's development and import substitution. The increase in the size of companies is considered advantageous, unlike the impact of financial investors on business efficiency.

Russia plans to export 2.5 million tons of wheat in July 2024/25 agricultural year, which is 68% less than the previous year. The forecast was lowered due to the slow pace of exports in the first decade of the month.

The Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) has reported an increase in the export of meat, dairy products, and potatoes from Russia over the past six months. The volumes of supplies to the international market have grown, including poultry meat, pork, milk, fish, vegetables, and fruits.

The export of products from the agro-industrial complex could exceed $45 billion by 2024.

In the South, an increase in the apple harvest is expected, while in the Center, it is anticipated to decrease by 15-17%. Frosts have damaged fruit crops in several regions, but the Bryansk region has minimized the damage. Frosts may even improve the quality of the fruits. The National Horticultural Association recommends insuring orchards. The Ministry of Agriculture plans to change the crop insurance methodology.

Bakery enterprises are facing an increase in flour prices due to the rise in grain prices. The Agricultural Ministry has announced an upcoming price increase to 30 rubles per kg. Some enterprises are demanding advance payment. The Agricultural Ministry is proposing to impose a duty on flour exports to reduce prices in the domestic market. The Agricultural Ministry is concerned about a flour shortage. Flour prices have risen, which may affect bread prices.

Russia exported 68.4 million tons of grain in the season, including 55.9 million tons of wheat. In June, exports decreased by 6.7% to 5 million tons. Egypt and Iran are the main buyers. Decreased prices and demand are putting pressure on the market. Producer prices have decreased.