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In its July report, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) lowered the forecast for sunflower harvest in Russia for the 2024/25 season to 16.5 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 17 million tons. Sunflower oil production is expected to be 6.7 million tons with exports of 4.15 million tons. Shipments of all kinds of vegetable oils from Russia are estimated at 6.22 million tons, including 730 thousand tons of soybean oil. The production of meal will amount to 3.84 million tons.
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture had previously estimated oilseed production in the new season at 28 million tons. Independent grain market expert Alexander Korbut had forecasted 29.5 million tons. ProZerno estimates that sunflower harvesting for the 2024/25 season will be at 15.8 million tons excluding new regions. Forecasting sunflower oil production and exports is currently challenging as much will depend on the results of the current agricultural year.
Analysts from OleoScope agency claim that due to unfavorable weather in some regions of Russia, making predictions on harvest is difficult. It is expected that the collection of main oilseeds will surpass 28 million tons, with sunflower harvest reaching 17 million tons, soybeans - 7.3 million tons, and rapeseed - 4.3 million tons. The forecast for vegetable oil production in Russia for the 2024/25 season is about 9.5 million tons, with an export volume of 7.4 million tons.
According to the Director General of the Institute of Agricultural Market Conditions, oilseed harvest in the new season may exceed record levels. It is expected that the total oilseed production will be 29.7-31.1 million tons, including 16.1-16.7 million tons of sunflower, 7.4-7.7 million tons of soybeans, and 4.7-4.95 million tons of rapeseed.
The situation with the harvest is still uncertain, and final numbers will be known after the completion of the harvest campaign and assessment of the weather impact. Nevertheless, the Russian agricultural market remains one of the leading players on the global stage.
