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Prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein in exports have increased to $222/ton FOB, which is $5/ton higher than last week. French wheat has gone up by $7/ton, reaching $240/ton, while German wheat grew by $6/ton to $243/ton. However, American wheat became cheaper by $3/ton, dropping to $211/ton.
The price increase for wheat in Europe is linked to deteriorating crop conditions in France and reduced yields in some regions of Russia. Unusually heavy rainfall in the Baltic countries will worsen the quality of wheat and barley. In the USA, wheat yields have shown potential, leading to price reductions, but drought is negatively impacting crop conditions.
Export prices for wheat with 12.5% protein at deep-water ports in Russia have increased by 450 rubles to 15.8-15.9 thousand rubles/ton excluding VAT, while prices at shallow-water ports rose by 500 rubles to 15 thousand rubles/ton. Last year, prices were at 16.7 thousand rubles/ton and 14.5 thousand rubles/ton respectively at the same time.
On the domestic market, prices for 4th grade wheat in the Southern region have increased to 14 thousand rubles/ton excluding VAT (EXW elevator), decreased to 12-12.8 thousand rubles/ton in the Volga region, and reduced to 12.5 thousand rubles/ton in the Center. In Siberia, prices remained at 11.8-12.7 thousand rubles/ton.
Analysts from "Rusagrotrans" have revised their wheat export forecast for July, increasing it from 2.5 million tons to 3.3 million tons, as they anticipate more active shipments in the second half of the month. This is lower than last year (4.17 million tons) but higher than the five-year average (3.1 million tons). August is expected to see exports at the level of 4-4.5 million tons, less than last year (5.4 million tons) but above the five-year average (4.9 million tons).
The export duty on wheat from July 31 to August 6 will be 906.4 rubles/ton, which is 634 rubles less than a week ago. The indicative price for calculating the rate is $220.5/ton, compared to $229.6/ton last week, as reported by the Ministry of Agriculture.
