Prices for Russian wheat are falling due to the harvest: analysts predict changes in global agricultural commodity prices.

Prices for Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% exported in August-September fell by $0.5/ton compared to the previous week, amounting to $219.5/ton FOB. French wheat became cheaper by $4/ton and now costs $230/ton, German wheat decreased by $6/ton to $243/ton, American wheat became $1/ton cheaper at $219/ton. The information was provided by analysts from the company "Agroinvestor" from the analytical center "Rusagrotrans".

Analysts noted that the August report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) had no significant impact on the wheat and corn markets. According to the USDA's forecast, global wheat stocks by the end of the 2024/25 season decreased by 0.6 million tons to 256.6 million tons, which is close to the market's average expectations. Estimates for wheat harvests in the EU decreased by 2 million tons to 128 million tons, while they increased for Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Australia. Wheat crop conditions in Argentina significantly deteriorated due to frost and lack of rainfall. The proportion of wheat in good/excellent condition decreased from 39% to 31%.

The forecast for global corn stocks decreased by 1.4 million tons to 310.2 million tons. Global corn production decreased by 5 million tons to 1.219 billion tons due to reduced forecasts for the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.

The cost of 12.5% protein wheat in deep-water ports increased by 500 rubles to 16.5-16.8 thousand rubles/ton without VAT, while remaining at 15.5-16 thousand rubles/ton in shallow water. Last year, prices for deep-water wheat were 16.7 thousand rubles/ton, and for shallow-water wheat – 14.45 thousand rubles/ton.

In the domestic market of Russia, wheat prices continue to rise in the European part of the country but remain unchanged in Siberia. Prices for 4th grade wheat in the south increased by 300 rubles to 14.6-15 thousand rubles/ton without VAT, in the Volga region by 250 rubles to 13.2-14 thousand rubles/ton. In the central part of the country, prices remained the same at an average of 13-13.9 thousand rubles/ton. In Siberia, prices remained around 10-11.5 thousand rubles/ton after a sharp decline. The market in this region is inactive.

Analysts predict that the ongoing rainy weather in the Volga region may slow down the wheat harvesting and negatively affect its quality. Excessive precipitation in the Urals and most of Siberia may lead to weed and plant disease development, as well as field flooding.

The Ministry of Agriculture of Bashkortostan has already estimated the damage from overmoistening of the soil due to heavy rains in the region at over 1 billion rubles. In most parts of the republic, wheat crops on an area of over 120 thousand hectares were destroyed. The information was assessed in 33 districts of the republic out of 54. The General Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Conditions Dmitry Rybko noted that the situation in the Volga region is ambiguous, and due to heavy rainfall in some regions, harvesting has not yet begun. Therefore, this year the region will provide wheat of very different qualities, including very poor and non-class. IKAR expects a high wheat harvest in Siberia and the Urals, but due to heavy rainfall, the protein content will be low.