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Over the past week, average prices for wheat with 12.5% protein content in deep-water ports have increased by 1.9-3.2% and reached the level of 16-16.3 thousand rubles per ton. This information is reported by the newspaper "Kommersant," citing the analytical center "SovEcon." According to the data from the "Rusagrotrans" center, wheat prices in deep-water ports have increased by 1.9% to the level of 16.1-16.2 thousand rubles per ton, while in shallow water, they have increased by 3.3% to 15.5 thousand rubles per ton. The National Commodity Exchange wheat index has risen by 1.1% in a week and by 4.1% in a month, reaching the level of 16.5 thousand rubles per ton.
According to "SovEcon," on the domestic market, prices for 3rd-grade wheat when shipped to the elevator increased by 2.5% to 14.4 thousand rubles per ton, 4th-grade wheat increased by 2.4% to 13.7 thousand rubles per ton, and 5th-grade wheat rose by 4.3% to 11.1 thousand rubles per ton. "Rusagrotrans" notes that prices for 4th-grade wheat in the South and Center of the country have increased by 4% and amount to 14.3-14.8 thousand rubles per ton and 13 thousand rubles per ton, respectively. In the Volga region, prices have risen by 7% to 12.9-13.6 thousand rubles per ton.
Export prices for Russian wheat, according to "SovEcon," are at $220-223 per ton. "Rusagrotrans" notes a price decrease by $2 to $220 per ton. Andrey Sizov, the director of "SovEcon," believes that competition with Bulgaria and Romania hinders the increase in wheat prices, but he points out that export prices have already reached their lowest level.
Dmitry Rylko, the CEO of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), attributes the current price increase in Russia's regions to exporters' activity and the demand from compound feed producers who are trying to increase reserves. He also notes that producers are facing low profitability at current prices, but due to the lack of financial reserves, they cannot delay sales.
According to "SovEcon," the recent tender in Algeria for the purchase of 600-700 thousand tons of wheat has influenced the market. A significant portion of this batch is likely to be purchased from Russia. In addition, expectations about further price increases are being shaped by Egypt's GASC tender for the shipment of 3.8 million tons of grain from October to April. The agency usually purchases 0.5 million tons of grain per month.
Elena Tyurina, the director of the analytical department of the Russian Grain Union (RGU), notes an increased demand for wheat from processors and exporters, which has led to a price increase. On average, the prices for 4th-grade wheat in the country amount to 13 thousand rubles per ton (excluding VAT, as of August 9), which is equivalent to about $162.5 per ton in dollar terms. She also points out that the expected reduction in export potential from the EU and Ukraine may lead to further price increases in global and domestic markets.
Tyurina highlights that the reduction of the export duty on wheat has been a positive development for the Russian market. Over the past week, the duty has almost halved to 257.3 rubles per ton (equivalent to $2.9 per ton in dollar terms). This is a signal for improving the profitability of exports, primarily.
Independent grain market expert Alexander Korbut believes that harvest will influence prices. He notes that farmers may delay sales due to the low price of grain, which is practically at or even below the cost price.
Korbut believes that the results of the GASC tender and the upcoming FAS USDA report will allow assessing further price prospects for wheat.
