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Agricultural enterprise "ProZerno" has reduced its grain crop forecasts in Russia for the current year. This information was reported in the organization's Telegram channel.
It is expected that the total grain harvest will amount to 123.6 million tons, which is lower than the previous forecast of 126 million tons (excluding new regions). In particular, the wheat harvest will decrease to 81.6 million tons, and barley to 16.8 million tons.
Corn will show the most significant decrease – 11.9 million tons. Rye production will reach a historical minimum of 1.28 million tons. The buckwheat harvest is expected to be at the level of 1.27 million tons, which is lower than last year's figures. Although the crop yield of agricultural crops has increased, the sown areas have decreased from 1.29 million hectares to 1.09 million hectares. In August, the CEO of "ProZerno," Vladimir Petrichenko, told "Agroinvestor" that he expects the buckwheat harvest to be at 1.3 million tons. By that time, the situation with crop yields looked good, he emphasized.
Experts also point to a reduction in the grain export potential from Russia by 22-23 million tons compared to last year. As a result, the export quota may become zero.
Petrichenko notes that despite the decrease in the harvest, the export potential is still decent. However, it is 22-23 million tons lower than last year. The CEO expects grain exports to reach 48.7 million tons. Last year, exports amounted to 72.2 million tons, including 54.1 million tons of wheat.
Petrichenko noted that the actual volume of shipments depends on the volume of unloading from the intervention fund. Currently, there is about 4 million tons of grain in the fund, which needs to be put on the market to ensure an export potential of 48-49 million tons.
Wheat exports are expected to be at 40.4 million tons. This is 12 million tons less than last year, but Russia will still remain the world's leading supplier of wheat, emphasized Petrichenko. Shipments of barley and corn in the new season will be insignificant. According to Petrichenko's forecast, corn exports may be restricted from December, as there will be insufficient product batches. He also does not exclude the possibility that the quota for grain exports from Russia may be zero.
