In the current season, barley may approach the price of wheat, expressed the idea by the general director of the analytical company "ProZerno" Vladimir Petrichenko during the Baltic Grain Assembly. The area under spring crops for the 2025 harvest decreased by 1.8 million hectares compared to the previous year. In particular, there is a slight decrease in land allocated to them in the European part of Russia, as well as a reduction in grain sowings in the Urals and Siberian regions. It is expected that the total grain harvest in the 2025/26 season, excluding new areas, will amount to 130.4 million tonnes, of which 83 million tonnes will be wheat.
A significant increase is expected in barley, which is projected to increase by more than a million tonnes compared to the previous year. According to "ProZerno" forecasts, the barley harvest will amount to 17.4 million tonnes. Corn production is estimated at 14.7 million tonnes. In addition, an absolute record is expected in the production of leguminous crops, Petrichenko emphasized. Their harvest will amount to 7 million tonnes, which is almost 1.7 million tonnes more than in 2024.
Considering new areas, the total grain harvest may reach around 134.5 million tonnes. "ProZerno" estimates grain reserves at the end of the season at 15 million tonnes, whereas previously they were expected to fluctuate between 12 and 14 million tonnes. The increased reserves are explained by two reasons. In the 2024/25 season, due to export quotas, exports significantly decreased by more than 50 million tonnes. Domestic grain demand during the same period is estimated at 83.2 million tonnes, compared to the expected 85 million tonnes, decreasing by 1.8 million tonnes compared to the previous season. This is primarily due to a reduction in grain purchases by livestock breeders. "Internal processors also could not sustain the market, as a result, grain prices did not remain at a high level but started to decline," Petrichenko emphasized.
At the beginning of the previous season, export prices for wheat, according to "ProZerno", ranged from 223 dollars per ton, reaching a peak of 254 dollars. By the start of the new season, they amounted to 226 dollars per ton. Both price decreases and increases are possible. The global grain market currently looks like a buyer-oriented market due to expectations of high yields in major producing regions. However, the main importers of Russian wheat - Turkey, Egypt, Iran - will maintain their purchasing levels, especially considering that by the end of the current season, their stocks in Turkey were very low, noted Petrichenko. Moreover, there is a possibility that Russia will resume shipments to Pakistan, which was absent among buyers in the 2024/25 season.
According to Petrichenko, barley may become a crop whose prices could rise. According to his data, by the beginning of July, barley prices ranged from 197 to 198 dollars per ton on the high seas, and in the near future, the specialist does not exclude a slight increase due to limited supplies, but in the long term, the price may decrease again. He recalls that in the 2018/19 season, barley prices at some point significantly increased, surpassing wheat prices. A similar scenario is also possible in the 2025/26 season, believes Petrichenko.
