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In the current agricultural year (July 2023-June 2024), according to the forecasts of the analytical center "Rusagrotrans", the Russian Federation may export 54 million tons of wheat.
The previous estimate was 53.1 million tons, as reported to "Interfax" by the center.
The forecast for wheat exports in May 2024, taking into account the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries, has been raised from 4.2 million to 4.4-4.5 million tons. More than 3 million tons have already been exported from May 1 to 20. In May 2023, exports amounted to 4.28 million tons.
According to the center's data, export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein, supplied in June, have increased to $245 per ton or more (FOB), which is $30 higher than at the beginning of May. The price for French wheat has risen to $267 per ton (+$27), German - to $266 per ton (+$19), American - to $269 per ton (+$37).
The main reasons for the rise in prices on the world market are cited by analysts as a reduction in wheat production potential in Russia due to May frosts in several regions, lack of rainfall in the central European part of Russia, lagging spring sowing in some regions of the Urals and Siberia due to cold and rainy weather.
Prices for wheat (4th class, 12.5% protein) in deep-water ports have risen to 17,000-17,200 rubles per ton without VAT (+2,600 rubles compared to two weeks ago), and in shallow water - to 14,200-14,500 rubles (+1,950 rubles). Last year, prices were 13,150 rubles in deep-water ports and 12,700 rubles in shallow water.
Analysts note that there is an activation of wheat sales on the domestic market under the influence of demand from traders, but agricultural producers prefer to hold back sales due to the high market volatility.
