Forecast: China will increase soybean production to 19.9 million tons in 2024/25, boost imports, and demand for soybean meal. Brazil is the leading supplier.

In accordance with the FAS USDA forecasts, soybean production in China in 2024/25 is expected to reach 19.9 million tons, thanks to increased yield and expansion of planting areas to 9.95 million hectares. Soybean imports are expected to reach 104 million tons, according to OleoScope.

The initial stocks of oilseeds are expected to reach 36.4 million tons, which is higher than the previous season level of 31.8 million tons.

“Low soybean prices and its surplus for both food and processing have led to a moderate reduction in planting areas in the 2024/25 season, despite China's efforts to subsidize the cultivation of oilseeds,” the updated FAS report says.

It is also noted that further consolidation and integration in the livestock sector will stimulate demand for soybean meal. Moderate recovery in vegetable oil demand and its expanded use in the food industry also contribute to the increased consumption of oilseeds in China.

It is forecasted that soybean processing will remain at 99 million tons. The main driver of oilseed consumption remains the demand for soybean meal. FAS confirms its forecast of total meal demand at 102.7 million tons, exceeding the previous estimate of 101.3 million tons.

It is also noted that Brazil is the main supplier of soybeans to China. Forecasts indicate that the volume of shipments in 2023/24 will be 77.3 million tons, which accounts for 74% of the total purchases. The United States ranks second with a significant gap - 21 million tons or 21%.