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Grain exports for the period from December 1 to 23 decreased by 23.2% compared to the previous year and amounted to 2.5 million tons, according to a report by the Russian Grain Union (RGU) cited by Interfax. Elena Tyurina, Director of the Analytical Department of the RGU, notes that in the first half of December, there was an increase in shipments, but the last week showed a decline. In particular, wheat exports decreased by 9.3% (to 2.29 million tons), corn by 79% (93 thousand tons), barley by 67% (79 thousand tons). According to Tyurina's forecast, the volume of wheat shipments for December may reach 3.1 million tons, lower than last year's figures. Export of other agricultural crops will also be lower.
According to Tyurina, Egypt is the leader in purchasing Russian wheat, with imports increasing 3.2 times to 363 thousand tons compared to last year. Tyurina emphasizes that Egypt imports wheat for processing into flour, part of which is exported to African countries. Bangladesh ranks second in wheat purchases, receiving 288 thousand tons (a 40% increase). Saudi Arabia takes third place with purchases of 373 thousand tons. Last year, this country did not import wheat.
As Tyurina notes, wheat prices in both Europe and Russia are strengthening. French wheat increased by 1.7% in a week, reaching $246/ton, and has risen by $11 since the beginning of December. Prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein increased by 1.3% in a week, reaching $240/ton, and by $26 since December 1 (FOB Novorossiysk). The expert points out that the price difference between Russian and European wheat has decreased from $21/ton at the beginning of December to $6/ton.
"Internal grain prices have different dynamics. Perhaps the main point is that farmers are holding onto wheat in hopes of further price increases," Tyurina believes. According to her, there is a significant price increase in the south of Russia. For example, in the Krasnodar region, the price per ton of wheat has reached 15.8 thousand rubles (excluding VAT), which is the maximum price. In the central region and the Volga region, prices, on the contrary, have decreased. In the Voronezh region, they decreased by 200 rubles to 14.65 thousand rubles per ton, and in the Volga region, the average decrease was 50 rubles, with the lowest price in the Samara region at 12.85 thousand rubles per ton.
According to the RGU data, purchase prices for wheat from producers in dollar equivalent increased by 1.6% to $150/ton in a week, and by $10/ton since the beginning of December. A year ago, the price was $127/ton. Tyurina believes that the price increase is not sufficient to achieve good profitability. That is why farmers are waiting for further price increases.
Independent agricultural market expert Alexander Korbut notes that grain exports in December will amount to about 3.7 million tons, lower than last year's level of 4.1 million tons. The decrease in export volumes is due to unfavorable weather conditions in the Black Sea region, Christmas holidays, and a complex global market situation. Korbut believes that the "price situation on the global market is not very good." In the recent tender, Tunisia did not buy Russian wheat, and the final price was below the Russian offer on FOB Novorossiysk. Korbut also points out that the sales market is limited. Grain exports in January will be insignificant, but exporters, considering the bans on corn and barley exports, will increase shipments of these crops, the expert concludes.
Earlier, it was reported that in the first half of the next year, grain exports will be limited by quotas: from February 15 to June 30, it will be possible to export 10.6 million tons of wheat and meslin to external markets, while the quota for other types of grain will be zero. The Grain Exporters and Producers Association believes there is a chance to receive a quota of around 0.5 million tons for corn exports from the Far East, where there was a harvest last year. According to the union's estimates, from January to February 15, grain exports will reach about 3 million tons in January and 1.5 million tons in the first half of February. Thus, by July 2025, around 15 million tons of grain may be exported.
