World wheat prices have decreased, while the Russian wheat index has risen. This is expected to lead to an increase in customs duties.

During the reporting week from 13.09.24 to 20.09.24, global prices for wheat decreased. The price for:

• international soft red winter wheat at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT, ZW) dropped to 568.50 cents per bushel (-4.41%);
• international hard red winter wheat at the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT, KE) went down to 564.00 cents per bushel (-6.00%);
• international hard red spring wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE, MWE) decreased to 608.00 cents per bushel (-4.33%);

The contract price for international corn at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT, ZC) fell to 401.75 cents per bushel (-2.78%). The price of international rough rice in Chicago (CBOT, ZR) increased to $15.56/cwt (+0.45%).

Russian indicative prices (FOB Black Sea):

• wheat decreased to $213.90/tonne (-0.19%);
• barley rose to $184.50/tonne (+1.77%);
• corn declined to $189.20/tonne (-0.42%);

Russian wheat index, CPT Novorossiysk, increased to 16873 rubles/tonne (+0.59%).

Purchase prices on the domestic market of the Russian Federation for 4th class wheat with 12.5% protein at port elevators of the Black and Azov Seas during the reporting period:

• Azov - 14200 (0) rubles/tonne
• Novorossiysk - 17150 (-400) rubles/tonne
• Rostov-on-Don - 14700 (+300) rubles/tonne
• Taman - 16700 (+500) rubles/tonne

By this time, Russian farmers have harvested around 104 million tons of grains and legumes, including 76 million tons of wheat and nearly 15.9 million tons of barley. Winter crops have been sown on an area of 8.5 million hectares. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's forecast, the total grain harvest in 2024 will reach 132 million tons, including 84 million tons of wheat.

The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its forecast for grain and wheat exports from Russia. The forecast for grain exports from Russia is 52.5 million tons (+300 thousand compared to the previous forecast). The forecast for wheat exports has been increased by 500 thousand tons, to 43.7 million tons. At the same time, a decrease in grain collection by 200 thousand tons is expected - to 119.2 million tons, while the wheat collection forecast remains unchanged at 81.8 million tons.

The Ministry of Agriculture expects additional funds for subsidizing concessional lending due to the increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia to 19%. For 2024, 219 billion rubles are already planned for these purposes, including 28 billion rubles for short-term loans. The total volume of concluded credit agreements in the industry amounts to about 1.2 trillion rubles annually.

Suboptimal weather conditions in the European part of Russia are having a negative impact on winter crops. Autumn drought is threatening the harvest. Winter rape, wheat, and rye are suffering from a lack of moisture, according to experts. The hot and dry summer has also affected the yield of late spring crops. Corn yields in the south of the country turned out to be one of the lowest in the last 20 years.

Three more regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency this week due to excessive soil moisture. In the Altai Krai, the harvesting campaign is hindered by heavy rains, with some areas experiencing significantly higher rainfall amounts over three months. Unfavorable weather conditions in Udmurtia have led to crops lying and grain sprouting, and harvest collection rates may decrease by 10-30%. In the Krasnoyarsk Krai, most areas have seen abnormal precipitation levels exceeding monthly norms, leading to crop damage on an area of 17 thousand hectares.

As of September 1, 2024, grain and legume stocks, including corn, in agricultural organizations have decreased by 16.78% compared to the previous year, amounting to 33.73 million tons. Wheat reserves have also decreased by 13.88% and amounted to 24.81 million tons.

Starting from September 25, 2024, new customs duties on wheat and meslin will come into effect, which will increase, while duties on corn will remain at the same level, and duties on barley will remain at zero.

BELARUS
By September 20, farmers harvested 8446 thousand tons of grains (including rapeseed). This includes 558 thousand tons of corn and 44 thousand tons of buckwheat.

KAZAKHSTAN
• By September 19, 13.5 million tons of grain were threshed with an average yield of 14.7 c/ha. This includes 9.7 million tons of wheat and 2.5 million tons of barley.

• Prodkorporation has started accepting agricultural products from the 2024 harvest. The organization notes that they offer high prices for purchasing wheat, as the current