International grain prices have been fluctuating: CBOT wheat has decreased, while corn has risen, with the forecast for wheat exports in Russia decreasing.

During the reporting week, from 05.07.24 to 12.07.24, international wheat prices fluctuated. The prices were as follows:

• soft red winter wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZW) decreased to 538.00 cents/bushel (-5.99%);
• hard red winter wheat at the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT, KE) increased to 604.00 cents/bushel (+1.47%);
• hard red spring wheat at the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE, MWE) remained unchanged at 621.00 cents/bushel (+0.00%);

The corn contract at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZC) decreased to 400.00 cents/bushel (-2.74%). The price of rice in Chicago (CBOT, ZR) increased to $19.55/cwt (+15.48%).

Indicative Russian prices (FOB Black Sea):

• wheat decreased to $230.80/ton (-1.62%);
• barley increased to $176.40/ton (+0.40%);
• corn rose to $191.30/ton (+0.26%);

The Russian wheat index, CPT Novorossiysk, decreased to 15592 rubles/ton (-1.07%).

At the ports of the Black and Azov Seas, purchasing prices for 4th class wheat with 12.5% protein were:

• Azov – 13500 (0) rubles/ton;
• Novorossiysk – 15900 (-500) rubles/ton;
• Rostov-on-Don – 13500 (-1100) rubles/ton;

Starting from July 17, 2024, export duties on wheat and meslin will increase to 1780.5 rubles/ton (+79.2 / +4.66%), while those on barley will remain at 0.0 rubles/ton (0 / —), and on corn will also remain at 0.0 rubles/ton (0 / —).

Oksana Lut, Minister of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, reported that more than 32 million tons of grain have been harvested at the moment. The forecast for the year remains at 132 million tons.

The analytical center "Rusagrotrans" predicts that in July (the first month of the new agricultural year, July 2024 - June 2025), Russia is likely to export 2.5 million tons of wheat, compared to 4.2 million tons in July 2023 (a decrease of 68%).

During the 2023-2024 agricultural year (from July 1, 2023, to June 30, 2024), Rosselkhoznadzor issued phytosanitary certificates for the export of 89.3 million tons of grain and its processing, which is 21% more than the figure for 2022-2023 - 73.9 million tons.

Experts from the "SovEcon" center calculated that purchasing prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein in deep-water ports decreased by 16% to 15,250 rubles/ton (excluding VAT), marking the most significant price drop since at least September 2023.

The government has extended the temporary restriction on rice and rice groats exports, which will be in effect until December 31, 2024.

According to Rosstat, as of June 1, 2024, Russia had sown 23,214.9 thousand hectares of spring cereals and leguminous crops, of which 8,800.7 thousand hectares were wheat.

The Krasnodar Krai has completed the harvest of winter barley. The total yield was 1.17 million tons, which is 6.3% more than last year.

Kazakhstan
In Kazakhstan, there is a shortage of grain storage capacity, which amounts to half of the crop, as reported by the Agency for Protection and Development of Competition.

Grain producers in Kazakhstan predict a repetition of the record set in 2011, when the harvest volume approached 30 million tons.

Ukraine
Ukrainian authorities have seized the cargo ship Usko Mfu under the flag of Cameroon, accusing the captain of violating the entrance procedures to Crimea. The ship and the captain are under arrest.

As of now, Ukraine has harvested over 4 million tons of winter wheat, barley, rapeseed, and peas. The yield is 5-7% lower than last year, attributed to weather conditions.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine has increased the forecast for gross collection to 77 million tons, of which 56 million tons are grains and leguminous crops, and 21 million tons are oil crops.

Belarus
As of July 10, 2024, early grain and leguminous crops (except for corn, buckwheat, and millet) have been harvested in Belarus on an area of 204.3 thousand hectares (10% of the plan), yielding 698 thousand tons of grain at an average yield of 34.2 c/ha.