International wheat prices continue to rise amid increased demand: corn also shows a steady growth.

Last week, from 20.09.24 to 27.09.24, international wheat prices continued to rise. The prices for the following products showed an increase:

• Soft red winter wheat traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZW) rose to 580.00 cents/bushel (+2.02%);
• Hard red winter wheat traded on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT, KE) increased to 576.75 cents/bushel (+2.26%);
• Hard red spring wheat traded on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE, MWE) rose to 608.25 cents/bushel (+0.04%);

The contract price for corn traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZC) reached 418.00 cents/bushel (+4.04%). The price of rice traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZR) decreased to $15.08/cwt (-3.08%).

Indicative prices on the Russian market (FOB Black Sea) are as follows:

• wheat decreased to $213.30/ton (-0.28%);
• barley decreased to $184.20/ton (-0.16%);
• corn increased to $231.10/ton (+22.15%);

According to the Russian wheat index, CPT Novorossiysk, the price rose to 17,325 rubles/ton (+2.68%).

Procurement prices on the internal Russian market for 4th class wheat with a protein content of 12.5% at Black and Azov Sea port elevators for the reporting period are as follows:

• Azov - 14,200 (0) rubles/ton
• Novorossiysk - 15,800 (-1350) rubles/ton
• Rostov-on-Don - 14,700 (0) rubles/ton
• Taman - 15,500 (-1200) rubles/ton

GRAIN MARKET NEWS

• In Russia, 78% of grain areas have already been harvested, with 105.9 million tons of grain collected, including 77.7 million tons of wheat. There are still 10.6 million hectares left to harvest, of which 8 million hectares are located in the Central, Urals, and Siberian Federal Districts.
   
• In 2024, 77% of the harvest is classified as food grade. The grain quality evaluation center inspected 45 million tons of wheat from 29 regions of Russia (89.7%) and identified wheat of all five classes: 1st class - 0.01%, 2nd class - 0.02%, 3rd class - 27%, 4th class - 50%, 5th class - 23%.
   
• The Ministry of Agriculture may adjust the grain harvest forecast for the current year. Regions are required to provide the ministry with final estimates of expected harvest by the end of the week. Despite unfavorable weather conditions, the ministry has not yet changed its grain harvest forecast (132 million tons, including 84 million tons of wheat).
   
• Grain harvest forecasts in Russia for the 2024/2025 season continue to decline. IKAR, Rusagrotrans, and ProZerno believe that no more than 125 million tons have been harvested. The Russian Grain Union and the Union of Exporters predict around 126 million tons. In addition, grain export estimates for the current season are also decreasing.
   
• This year's corn harvest in Russia may be the lowest in the last 6 years. The corn harvest in Russia will amount to 11.9 million tons (29.5% of the annual level), according to SovEcon analysts. ProZerno gives a similar estimate. The main reason for the decline in the harvest is drought in the southern and central regions. ProZerno notes that corn exports may cease in December - there will be no more shipments.
   
• In the regions of Russia: in the Altai region, grain quality deteriorated due to rains, with a harvest delay of 20-25%. In Tatarstan, due to weather conditions, grain losses amount to around 10%, equivalent to 3 billion rubles. The current corn yield in the Rostov region is more than two times lower than last year (25 c/ha instead of 54.4 c/ha). Harvesting rates have recovered in the Novosibirsk region, but ruined crops due to heavy rainfall have caused damage of over 1 billion rubles. Due to bad weather, Khakassia declared a state of emergency in the second district.
   
• Starting from October 2, 2024, export duties on all grain crops will increase. The rate for corn will increase by 9.5 times. The duty on barley will increase for the first time since May.

BELARUS

The pace of corn harvesting impressively exceeds last year's figures. 914 thousand tons of corn have been harvested, covering 43% of the areas. By this time in 2023, only 13% had been harvested. A total of 8,806 thousand tons of grain have been harvested in the country, including rapeseed.

KAZAKHSTAN