Global grain stocks continue to decline: IGC forecasts a decrease for the sixth year in a row.

Global grain reserves are expected to decrease for the sixth consecutive year, with corn volumes declining due to losses in Ukraine, the EU, and the USA.

It is anticipated that global wheat production will remain at last year's level, while trading volumes will decrease due to reduced corn imports in Asia.

Soybean production will increase thanks to yields in South America. The grain price index has remained almost unchanged but remains higher than last year's level.

7 October 2024

According to the latest report on the global grain market presented by the International Grains Council (IGC) on October 20, global end-of-season grain stocks (including wheat and feed grains) are expected to decline for the sixth consecutive year, as reported by World-Grain.com.

It is forecasted that the volume of end-of-season stocks for the marketing year 2022-23 will reach 584 million tonnes, which is 3% lower than the previous year. Although a decrease in global grain consumption by 3 million tonnes to 2.271 billion tonnes is projected, production is also expected to decrease by 34 million tonnes, mainly due to a reduction in corn production by almost 50 million tonnes.

"A significant portion of the decline is related to a sharp reduction in (corn) volumes with substantial losses expected in Ukraine, the EU, and the USA," the IGC statement said.

The world wheat production is forecasted to remain unchanged compared to the previous estimate at 792 million tonnes, which is 10 million tonnes higher than last year.

The IGC also noted a projected decrease in wheat and feed grain trade volumes to 408 million tonnes, which will be the lowest level since the 2019-20 marketing year. The overall decline in trade volume is attributed to reduced corn imports, mainly in Asia, as well as wheat and sorghum in China.

According to IGC data, global soybean production is expected to reach 386 million tonnes, which is 9% higher than the previous year, thanks to higher yields in South America. Soybean end stocks are also expected to be significantly higher than the previous year, reaching 54 million tonnes, which is 17% more.

The grains and oilseeds price index compiled by the IGC has remained almost unchanged compared to the previous month, but is still 11% higher than last year.

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