Monitoring - Incubator

The agricultural season of 2024/25 was challenging due to unfavorable conditions. Maintaining the profitability of farming is expected. Oilseed and legume crops may set new records. Export has slowed down, domestic prices have strengthened. Forecasts for the new harvest raise doubts. The profitability of oilseed crops may decrease, impacting agriculture.

Since the beginning of the year, the export of agricultural products from Russia to China has increased by 8%, reaching $3.1 billion. It is expected that by 2030, the volume will exceed $11 billion. Russia is an important supplier of fish, oils, grains, and buckwheat to China. The export of pasta and alcohol is also increasing.

Analysts have increased the forecast of wheat harvest to 82.8 million tons due to the weather in the Southern regions. However, in the Rostov region, drought is damaging the crops. Production is planned to be reduced, fearing that the harvest will be worse than last year.

Production of agricultural products in Russian farms has increased: by 1.4% in April, by 1.6% in January-April. Experts expect a growth ranging from 2% to 4.4% this year, however, some believe that the forecasts are overestimated due to negative factors.

The CEO of the Health & Nutrition company believes that by 2030, Russia could return to Soviet-era milk consumption levels, reaching 390 kg per capita. Currently, this figure stands at 250 kg. The increase in consumption is attributed to pricing policies, expanding assortment, and government support.

The research center "SovEcon" has increased the forecast for wheat harvest by 1.2 million tons, reaching 81 million tons. The harvest of grains and leguminous crops overall will also increase. The sown area under crops will decrease. The USDA predicts wheat harvest in Russia at 83 million tons. The total grain harvest in Russia could reach 129 million tons with favorable weather conditions, according to an agricultural market specialist.

Export prices for Russian wheat have dropped to $248 per ton, with little demand for the old crop. Prices for the new crop are at $227 per ton. Wheat prices have also decreased in other countries.

Domestically, wheat prices have weakened, except in Siberia where prices have slightly increased due to rising demand.

Analyst Nikolay Mochalov of the Fish Union suggests that in order to achieve the goals in the fishing industry, it is necessary to increase fish exports and domestic consumption, requiring an additional volume of raw materials of 1.7 million tons. The development of aquaculture is a priority, with the possibility of projects emerging for fish farming in closed aquatic systems.

The fish catch in Russia remains approximately at the same level, but it is not diverse enough.

In April, the FAO Food Price Index reached 128.3 points, exceeding March by 1.2 points and April of the previous year by 9 points.

Prices for grains and meat rose, while prices for oils and butter decreased. Sugar prices fell due to uncertainty in the global economy.

Export of wheat and meslin from Russia is limited to a quota of 10.6 million tons due to low profitability. It is forecasted that the volume of shipments will be around 9 million tons. The decrease in the dollar value and the strengthening of the ruble are increasing costs.

In April, it is planned to export only 1.92 million tons, which is 2.5 times less than the previous year.

The government has introduced amendments to the agricultural development program, tightening the conditions for obtaining subsidies and grants.

The subsidy application process will be simplified, especially for agricultural insurance. Conditions for seed production and fish farming organizations will also change.

According to statistics, in Buryatia, gasoline prices are below the average for the Far East region: 57.65 rubles per liter for AI-92, 60.68 rubles for AI-95, 82.77 rubles for AI-98, and 75.48 rubles for diesel fuel. In Yakutia, gasoline is the most expensive.