International trade - Incubator

Favorable rains in Georgia will lead to a 20% increase in wheat harvest in 2024, up to 180,000 tons. The planned harvest is scheduled for the coming weeks. The media shared data from the Grain and Flour Association of Georgia. Weather will be a key factor.

The USDA analysis showed that 48% of cropland in the US has good crops, which is 1% less than a week ago, but better than a year ago (34%).

Spring wheat crops have increased to 88%, compared to 79% last year. Corn and soybean plantings are also lower than last year but correspond to the average indicators of previous years.

The meeting of the operational headquarters in Stavropol discussed preparations for the harvest. Agricultural areas were inspected by a team of politicians and experts. In the conditions of drought, experienced wheat varieties are being grown. The harvest is ready for collection earlier than usual. A decrease in the gross grain harvest is predicted due to the drought. Funds are planned to be allocated to induce precipitation.

The head of the regional Duma expressed the need to simplify legislation in the field of plant breeding. Government support for the region's farmers amounts to 40% of the planned support.

Jordan has refused to purchase wheat due to high prices.

Attention companies: a new tender with changed delivery terms will be announced by June 4.

Ukrainian farmers will be able to receive a government subsidy for agricultural activities starting from the beginning of May. Applications are accepted from agricultural producers in areas without military actions and in the occupied territories of 11 regions. Financial assistance up to 8,000 hryvnias per hectare is provided to farmers with land plots up to 120 hectares.

According to the FranceAgriMer report, the crop rotation of soft wheat in France is deteriorating: only 63% of crops are in good condition (compared to 93% last year). The situation is also worse for durum wheat and barley: 64% and 73% respectively in good condition (compared to 86% and 95% last year). The area sown with corn is 22% below the average for the last 5 years.

The company "Rusagrotrans" has raised the forecast for wheat exports from Russia for the current season to 54 million tonnes. An increase in both exports and domestic wheat prices is expected. Export prices have risen to $245 per tonne FOB, while domestic prices have also increased.

Prices for goods at the markets: sunflower seeds in Russia increased by 0.3%, corn grew by 1.2%, and soybeans by 0.2%.

On the global markets, sunflower seeds and oil are getting more expensive, while corn is getting cheaper. Russia has sown 36.2 million hectares.

In the second half of 2024, the Moscow Exchange plans to launch trading with cash-settled futures on soybeans, sunflower seeds, and sunflower oil. The margin requirement will be set at a minimum of 10%, making the contracts accessible to retail investors. Additionally, in 2022, the exchange started trading futures on wheat and Russian sugar.

Russia can export 54 million tons of wheat in the current agricultural year, which is 0.9 million tons more than the estimate. Prices have risen due to bad weather; in June, $245 had to be paid for a ton of wheat with 12.5% protein, while in deep-water ports of the Russian Federation, the price was 17,000-17,200 rubles.

Prices for palm oil in exporting countries are prone to decrease due to increased production and reduced demand. It is expected that this trend will continue due to market oversupply and expectations of further price declines.

Exchange rates also affect the product's affordability for international buyers, but weak demand creates uncertainty in the market. Analysts warn of increased volatility in the near future.

May weather can affect the grain harvest in Russia, but sunflower and soybeans are expected to be almost unaffected. The harvest of these crops is expected to be 4.5% and 11.9% higher respectively. Farmers are replanting damaged fields with oilseed crops due to their profitability. The forecast for oilseed crops has been increased, unlike wheat.