International trade - Incubator

In the USA, the harvesting of winter wheat has accelerated due to dry weather. 37% of the fields have been threshed, which is 18% more than a week ago.

Spring wheat crops are developing faster but are in worse condition than last year. Corn crops are in good condition: 73%, which is 1% higher than a week ago.

Starting from July 2, the tariff for exporting wheat from Russia will decrease to 56.3 rubles per ton, which is 4.4 times lower than last week. Tariffs for barley will remain unchanged, while those for corn will increase. The calculations are based on contract prices and will come into effect on July 8.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation has estimated that this year the area of insured crops is 2 million hectares. Applications for compensation for losses are already being accepted, with the total amount reaching 200 million rubles.

The insured area of perennial crops has increased. There is a growing interest among agricultural producers in state insurance due to attractive conditions.

In the Kaluga region, 9.3 thousand hectares were sown with rapeseed for the harvest of 2025, increasing the area by 63%. Growing rapeseed is considered promising and is used in the food industry, animal husbandry, as fuel, in medicine, and cosmetology.

Farmers in 6 out of 18 states have started harvesting wheat crops. Texas is leading with 25% of the harvest collected, exceeding the 5-year average by 27%. Arkansas with 8% of the harvest and California with 5% are also on a good track. North Carolina and Oklahoma are slightly behind, while Missouri is at the average level.

Altyn Shyghys plant from Kazakhstan will send sunflower oil to China for Sinograin. The production corporation consolidates export batches, helping farmers enter global markets. Within the project, contracts worth $20 million have already been signed. Cooperation with CITIC Construction is the result of meetings in Astana and Beijing, contributing to exports.

Weather forecast in the USA until July 2: warm, high humidity in the corn belt. The influence on corn and soybean crops due to high humidity, market deterioration due to contradictions. Improvement of weather is expected in the plains of winter wheat.

Production of Brazilian soybeans is growing, the USA expects a crop of 118.84 million tons. Argentina plans to introduce 49 million tons to the market.

The sunflower crop in Russia by June 20, 2025 covers 11.4 million hectares, which is 941 thousand hectares more than last year. The largest increase in sowing areas was recorded in the Siberian Federal District (+119%), with 4.95 million hectares planted in the Volga Federal District. Half of the federal districts have exceeded the planned targets. The projected harvest for the new season is 17.3 million tonnes.

Export companies have set new prices for Russian wheat, which now amount to 14500 rubles per ton ($184).

Analysts note price fluctuations for the new crop from July to October 2024, with a minimum of 14750 rubles per ton ($167) and a maximum of 17900 rubles per ton ($186). The unstable financial situation could affect prices.

The USDA report: over 75% of the corn in the five major states was rated excellent or good. North Carolina leads with 85% of the crop receiving top marks. Iowa and Kentucky also showed high results, with Missouri having the best quality among 18 states. Pennsylvania had 77% rated positively.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has released initial estimates of the soybean crop: only 5 states have not reached 60% in the "good" to "excellent" category. Iowa and Wisconsin are at 18% and 16% respectively. In Illinois, 48% of soybeans are in excellent condition, while in Iowa it's 63%. Iowa's weather conditions are favorable for soybean growth following May precipitation. Cold and dry weather in May slowed down crop development. An increase in temperature is expected in early June, which could improve crop prospects.

The US Department of Agriculture has announced that 100% of soybeans have been planted in Minnesota and Louisiana by June 15. The progress exceeds the average level for the past 5 years.

In Minnesota, 94% of the crop is in good condition, while in Louisiana, it is 72%.