International trade - Fork Cast

The USDA analysis showed that 48% of cropland in the US has good crops, which is 1% less than a week ago, but better than a year ago (34%).

Spring wheat crops have increased to 88%, compared to 79% last year. Corn and soybean plantings are also lower than last year but correspond to the average indicators of previous years.

The meeting of the operational headquarters in Stavropol discussed preparations for the harvest. Agricultural areas were inspected by a team of politicians and experts. In the conditions of drought, experienced wheat varieties are being grown. The harvest is ready for collection earlier than usual. A decrease in the gross grain harvest is predicted due to the drought. Funds are planned to be allocated to induce precipitation.

The head of the regional Duma expressed the need to simplify legislation in the field of plant breeding. Government support for the region's farmers amounts to 40% of the planned support.

Russia can export 54 million tons of wheat in the current agricultural year, which is 0.9 million tons more than the estimate. Prices have risen due to bad weather; in June, $245 had to be paid for a ton of wheat with 12.5% protein, while in deep-water ports of the Russian Federation, the price was 17,000-17,200 rubles.

Prices for palm oil in exporting countries are prone to decrease due to increased production and reduced demand. It is expected that this trend will continue due to market oversupply and expectations of further price declines.

Exchange rates also affect the product's affordability for international buyers, but weak demand creates uncertainty in the market. Analysts warn of increased volatility in the near future.

May weather can affect the grain harvest in Russia, but sunflower and soybeans are expected to be almost unaffected. The harvest of these crops is expected to be 4.5% and 11.9% higher respectively. Farmers are replanting damaged fields with oilseed crops due to their profitability. The forecast for oilseed crops has been increased, unlike wheat.

Over the past 8 years, rapeseed production in the Pskov region has increased 20 times, reaching 36,000 tons. This has allowed to reduce the areas of unused land, attract investments, and start delivering rapeseed products to other regions of Russia.

Stable growth in soybean seed expenses in the USA over the past decades has increased by 260%, surpassing the overall increase in soybean production costs, which stood at 157%. Experts attribute the rise in expenses to the introduction of genetically modified seeds and technological changes.

In April 2024, in Kazakhstan, prices for agricultural products decreased by 0.3%. The most significant decrease affected sunflower seeds (-1.3%), cucumbers (-7.6%), and eggs (-6.3%). Overall agricultural production increased by 1.7%, reaching 1.17 trillion tenge.

The Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision (Rosselkhoznadzor) has inspected over 377 thousand tons of grain for export to 13 countries, with export volume increasing by 1.6 times. Wheat accounts for 64% of the export, and Kazakhstan is the main buyer. Violations identified led to export bans and issuance of 143 warnings.

TD "Rif" has received a phytosanitary certificate for the vessel and shipped 63,000 tons of wheat to Egypt. They are awaiting permits for two more ships.

The Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance has blocked 17 vessels due to quarantine objects. The company holds the second place among Russian grain exporters.

In this year, Kazakhstan may face a drought, so farmers are advised to retain moisture in the fields. A hot May is expected, with a risk of drought in June due to a lack of precipitation. Adaptation to climate change, selection of crops for sowing, and development of irrigation systems are needed.