Forecast of the oilseed crop harvest in Russia against adverse weather conditions: sunflower and soybeans are a priority, the harvest will increase by 11.9%.

In early May, severe weather is raging and may affect the grain harvest throughout Russia, but sunflowers and soybeans are almost unaffected. Analysts predict that the harvest of these crops will be 4.5% and 11.9% higher than previously forecasted figures, respectively. Farmers prefer to replant damaged agricultural lands with oilseeds due to their higher profitability and seed availability. New territories can also contribute to increasing the harvest. The forecast for the production and export of sunflower oil is adjusted to an increase of 9–10% due to this. However, the ban on sunflower seed exports restrains farmers' income growth.

According to the Price Index Center's forecast, 16.2 million tons of sunflower will be harvested in Russia this season, which is 4.5% higher than the initial forecast. The soybean harvest is projected to be 11.9% higher, reaching 6.6 million tons. Andrey Sizov, the director of SovEcon, expects the sunflower harvest this season to be 16.6 million tons, warning of possible adjustments. The Ministry of Agriculture explains that the forecasts for the sunflower cultivation structure are still being observed, with the total sunflower planting area currently at 7.2 million hectares.

The forecast for oilseeds in the Price Index Center has been increased, lowering expectations regarding wheat after the adverse weather in May.

According to their forecast, 86.1 million tons of wheat will be harvested in the new season, 4.9% lower than previously forecasted (90.5 million tons). Many farmers are replanting the wheat crops with oilseeds, says Darya Snitko, Vice President of Gazprombank. This is associated with a seasonal factor (sunflowers are sown in the spring) and farmers' expectations regarding the profitability of this culture. Andrey Neduzhko, the CEO of the Step agricultural holding, reminds that sunflower is the only culture whose planting areas are regulated at the regional level. For example, in the Rostov region, it cannot occupy more than 15% of arable land. Sunflower depletes the soil, and it is permissible to sow it on the same field with an interval of seven to eight years, explains a source in the agricultural industry.

Aleksei Skorobogatov, the CEO of the agricultural complex "Labinsky" (manages assets of the Pokrovsky concern), believes that focusing on oilseed crops in regions affected by frosts is logical. However, such changes affect crop rotation principles, and the yield on newly sown areas may be lower than on prepared fields, he warns.

According to a source, farmers' policies may also affect the availability of seed material, as seeds could be purchased with a payment delay. Another source points out that farmers sow the damaged lands intended for grain, peas, chickpeas, and lentils affected by adverse weather. These crops are also export-oriented, and their production profitability is higher than that of wheat.

Moreover, although the Price Index Center's forecast for the sunflower harvest has been raised, the actual harvest will still be 6.4% lower than last season (17.3 million tons).

Last year, according to Andrey Sizov, the high sunflower harvest was due to good weather. However, this year, the culture also suffered from frosts and drought in May. Aleksei Skorobogatov pointed out that yields in the Krasnodar region may be 10–30% below plan due to drought.

Basic analysts' forecasts do not account for the harvest in new regions. Taking this into consideration, according to a source, the sunflower planting area in Russia may increase by 13%, and the harvested crop - up to 17–18 million tons. Another source indicates that sunflower from new territories enters the Russian market, but the volumes cannot be estimated.

According to the Price Index Center's forecast, the sunflower oil production volume in the next season will reach 7.1 million tons, which is 9.4% higher than expected. The forecast for product exports is also increased by 9.5%, to 4.6 million tons. The increase in the harvest, as noted by Mikhail Maltsev, the executive director of the Fat-and-Oil Union, will naturally lead to an increase in oil production volume. He also notes that the existing production capacities significantly exceed the volumes of harvested raw materials, which supports competition.

Andrey Sizov believes that in conditions of the ban on sunflower seed exports, their price is largely determined by the policy of oil processing plants. According to SovEcon data, the price of seeds in the domestic market is 27.3 thousand rubles per ton, which is 27.1% higher than a year ago.