Monitoring - Fork Cast

India plans to resume wheat imports from Russia after 6 years to stabilize prices due to crop failure. The market may also start importing chickpeas and other grains. India has increased agricultural imports from Russia by 76% to $572 million in the 1st quarter.

The Ministry of Agriculture predicts that buckwheat plantings this year will remain at the level of the previous year - over 1.2 million hectares. The harvest will influence the prices of buckwheat, which is currently priced at half the cost of last year: from 15 to 17 thousand rubles per ton. Demand could increase if the harvest decreases more than expected.

The Ministry of Agriculture is preparing to declare a state of emergency due to frosts that have damaged the grain crop. The losses are estimated in millions of tons and billions of rubles, with reduced forecasts for grain yield and export. Agricultural crops have been affected on millions of hectares, especially in the central and southern regions of the country.

In the 1st quarter of 2024, Russia increased the export of vegetable oils to China to 578.3 thousand tons (+18.2%). China has become the main buyer of sunflower, rapeseed, and soybean oil. The export of meal has also grown. India, Turkey, Egypt have increased their purchases. Export prospects are optimistic, but palm oil prices may impact the situation.

According to Rosstat, gasoline prices in the Altai Krai are below average for Siberia. AI-92 gasoline costs 48.47 rubles per liter (52.03 rubles per liter in Tuva), AI-95 - 51.30 rubles per liter (the lowest in the region), AI-98 - 66.24 rubles per liter (the lowest in the district), diesel - 65.49 rubles per liter (the lowest in the district).

In the last week, there have been minor changes: AI-95 is cheaper by 0.2%, AI-98 is more expensive by 0.4%.

In 2024, due to frosts in May, the harvest of stone fruits and berries in Russia will decrease, which will lead to an increase in prices for these products.

Optimistic forecasts are being made regarding the apple harvest, but the risk of losing up to half of the entire fruit harvest still remains.

The drop in temperature also affected the North Caucasus and the South of the country. In 2023, Russia set a record for fruit and berry harvest, but self-sufficiency is still insufficient.

In the new season, Russia plans to export 52 million tons of wheat, remaining the world leader. The EU will reduce exports by 1 million tons due to a decrease in production, and Ukraine's exports will also decrease. Russian supplies are competitive; a decrease in global wheat trade is expected. Major suppliers such as Canada, the US, and Australia will increase exports, intensifying competition. Wheat consumption in Russia will decrease, global production will amount to 798.2 million tons. Analysts have lowered the wheat harvest forecast in Russia to 89.9 million tons due to drought, with possible additional adjustments.

Inflation in Russia slowed down to 0.06% from April 23rd to May 2nd, with the annual growth rate of prices decreasing from 7.82% to 7.75%. The decline in fruit and vegetable prices continues, however, the price of lamb may increase by 150-200 rubles due to production stagnation and rising demand.