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The Ministry of Agriculture is planning to declare a federal-scale emergency situation due to crop damage caused by frosts. However, specific deadlines have not yet been determined, Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut announced.
The department does not intend to revise the grain harvest forecast, the projected volume is 132 million tons. Regional emergencies due to frosts have already been declared in ten regions. The Ministry of Agriculture previously estimated losses and damage to agricultural crops covering an area of 900 thousand hectares.
According to the latest data, more than 1.5 million hectares were affected by frosts in May, of which 1 million hectares will need to be replanted. In total, about 2 million hectares of crops will be damaged, said Arkadiy Zlochevsky, the head of the Russian Grain Union, at a press conference. He noted that such late frosts have not been seen in Russia for a long time; the last time they occurred was 100 years ago, and the optimal period for replanting has already passed, so the harvest will be later. Some of the crops will be lost under the snow.
Frosts have a significant impact on grain crops in Russia. Even if agricultural producers manage to sow damaged areas with late spring crops, their yield will be much lower compared to winter crops. It is predicted that this year the grain harvest in Russia will be less than 130 million tons. The average yield will be 25.8 centners per hectare, with a total harvest of about 129 million tons. This is significantly less than the previously predicted range of 142 to 149 million tons.
The Institute for Agricultural Market Conditions (IKAR) has revised its grain harvest forecast in Russia for the fourth time in a month. The General Director of IKAR, Dmitry Rylko, told the Interfax news agency that the harvest forecast has been reduced from 132 million tons to 129.5 million tons, including a decrease in wheat production from 83.5 million tons to 81.5 million tons. The forecast for grain exports for the next agricultural year has also been adjusted and reduced to 55.5 million tons from the previous 57 million tons, including a cut in the wheat export forecast from 45 million tons to 44 million tons. Dmitry Rylko explained that the significant losses from frosts in the central regions and the Volgograd region, as well as the lack of precipitation in most of the European territory of the country, especially in the productive southern areas, were the reasons for the forecast reduction.
On May 15, the analytical center "SovEcon" reported that due to frosts, wheat losses would amount to nearly 3.9 million tons worth 45 billion rubles. However, after receiving data from agricultural enterprises and regional authorities, the Center revised its forecasts and reduced the wheat harvest forecast in Russia to 85.7 million tons from the previous forecast of 89.6 million tons. It also took into account a reduction in wheat sown areas by 0.3 million hectares to 29.2 million hectares, and the yield decreased from 3.03 tons per hectare to 2.93 tons per hectare.
