Export forecast for wheat: Russia remains the leader, increasing competition with the EU and Ukraine, analysts predict the trend to continue.

According to forecasts by the US Department of Agriculture, in the 2024/25 season Russia plans to export 52 million tons of wheat (excluding Crimea and new regions). This volume is 1.5 million tons less than the export estimate for the current season, but Russia will still remain the world's leader in wheat shipments. The European Union, the closest competitor, plans to export 34 million tons of agricultural products. The forecast notes that in the 2024/25 trading year, competition between Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine will remain intense. Even with a 1.5 million ton decrease in the export forecast compared to the previous year due to a decrease in yields, Russia will remain the world's largest wheat exporter for the fifth year in a row.

US analysts point out that in the 2023/24 year, Russia strengthened its presence in many markets in the Middle East and Africa that previously depended on supplies from the European Union or Ukraine. They predict that this trend will continue into the 2024/25 year, as Russian shipments will remain competitive in price. At the same time, exports from the European Union are expected to decrease by 1 million tons compared to the previous season due to reduced production, especially in France, a key exporting country. Ukraine's exports may also decrease by 3.5 million tons, to 14 million tons, due to decreased production. Experts also believe that Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine will compete for their market share in the Middle East and Europe.

Forecasts indicate that global wheat trade will be at its lowest level since 2021/22 due to reduced yields in many important exporting countries. Nevertheless, this will still be the third largest figure in recorded history. Meanwhile, major suppliers of high-quality wheat, such as Canada, Australia, and the USA, are expected to have larger harvests in the new season, intensifying competition in Western Hemisphere and Asian markets. Canada plans to increase exports by 500 thousand tons compared to the previous year, to 24.5 million tons. It is expected that US exports will grow by 1.5 million tons, to 21 million tons, due to competitive prices. Despite expanding production, exports from Australia are expected to decrease by 2.5 million tons, to 22 million tons, due to increased competition.

According to American analysts, this year's wheat harvest in Russia is expected to be around 88 million tons, compared to 91.5 million tons in 2023 (excluding Crimea and new regions). Consumption is expected to decrease by 250 thousand tons, to 39.75 million tons, with reserves expected to be around 8 million tons at the end of the 2023/24 season. Global wheat production in the new season may reach almost 798.2 million tons, consumption - about 802.4 million tons, with reserves at 253.6 million tons.

The analytical center Rusagrotrans on May 8 lowered its forecast for wheat harvest from 92 million tons to 89.9 million tons due to drought and does not exclude a further reduction to 87-88 million tons if the lack of rainfall continues through the end of May. Corrections of 1-2 million tons in the forecast are also possible due to a second wave of frosts. The Institute for Agricultural Market Conjuncture (IKAR) has also reduced its forecast for gross grain harvest due to drought in the south, from 146 million tons to 142 million tons, including the forecast for wheat harvest from 93 million tons to 91 million tons. IKAR's General Director Dmitry Rylko does not rule out further forecast reductions due to frosts.