Россия планирует экспортировать рекордные 62,8 млн тонн зерна за сельхозгод: как это отразится на мировом рынке?

During the 11 months of the current agricultural year (from July 1, 2023, to May 31, 2024), Russia will export a record 62.8 million tons of grain, which is 8% more than in the same period last season. This forecast was made by the Russian Grain Union, as reported by Interfax.

According to the forecast of the Union's analytical department director Elena Tyurina, 4.2 million tons of grain will be shipped in June, including approximately 3.9 million tons of wheat. The export potential for wheat for the agricultural year is estimated at 55 million tons. However, there is a trend of decreasing grain shipments that has been ongoing since the beginning of the month. By May 27, 4.65 million tons of grain were shipped for export, which is 20.4% less than the previous year. Shipments of wheat decreased by 18.8%, barley by 12.8%, and maize by almost 40%.

As a result, it is expected that wheat shipments in May will be around 4 million tons, which is 900 thousand tons less than in May of the previous year. The total volume of grain shipments will decrease by 700 thousand tons to 5 million tons. Wheat shipments were made to 34 countries, including Egypt, Turkey, Yemen, Kenya, and Bangladesh. Shipments to Egypt decreased by 46%, to Turkey by 2.8 times less grain was sent, to Yemen by 18%. However, shipments to Kenya increased by 17 times, and to Bangladesh by 13%.

The main buyers of barley are Saudi Arabia and Iran. Exports to Saudi Arabia have more than tripled, and to Iran almost doubled. Barley was also delivered to Kuwait, Morocco, and Algeria, where this grain was not previously supplied.

Corn was mainly exported to Iran, Turkey, and Libya, but compared to the previous year, shipment volumes were lower: by 13% to Iran, by 3% to Turkey, and by 42% to Libya.

The number of companies shipping grain in May decreased from 68 to 46. The number of ports remained almost unchanged - 45 compared to 46 the previous year. Shipments through Novorossiysk decreased by 17%, and transshipment in roadsteads decreased by 25.5%. However, grain shipments through the Taman port increased by 1.8 times, and through the Vysotsk port (Leningrad region) - by almost two times.

Grain prices continue to rise. Producers are actively buying wheat in anticipation of a reduction in gross harvests and an increase in demand. Prices for French wheat increased by 4% in a week, and for American wheat by 4.3%. Russian wheat remains competitive, maintaining a discount compared to European wheat.

Average wheat purchase prices are also rising. In the central regions, the price increased by 2,000 rubles per ton, in the south by 1,700 rubles, and in the Volga region by 1,600 rubles. The average price was 13,900 rubles per ton, which is equivalent to $155 in dollar terms. Overall, wheat prices have risen by 30.7% since the beginning of the month.

In the previous agricultural year (2022/2023), Russia exported 60 million tons of grain, including 47 million tons of wheat.