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The analytical center "SovEcon" has raised its forecast for the wheat harvest in 2024. It is now expected to reach 93.6 million tonnes, which is 1.4 million tonnes more than the previous forecast. Last year, Russia harvested 92.8 million tonnes of wheat. This new forecast is attributed to favorable weather conditions. The winter wheat crop is estimated at 67.7 million tonnes, compared to last year's 63.8 million tonnes, and spring wheat at 25.9 million tonnes, compared to last year's 28.9 million tonnes.
Currently, weather conditions for wheat sowing in many regions are favorable. In most areas where winter wheat is grown, warmth persists, and the snow cover reaches 15 centimeters or more. However, in the Southern regions of the country, the weather is warmer than usual by 10-12 degrees Celsius. According to analysts, such extreme temperature fluctuations could pose a threat to winter wheat crops, but only in case of a sharp cold snap.
In the coming weeks, temperatures are expected to be above normal by 1-2 degrees Celsius in the South and at normal or slightly below normal levels in the Central and Volga regions of the country. Experts believe that if there are no serious frosts, a good forecast for the Russian crop could put pressure on global prices in the coming months.
Independent grain market expert Alexander Korbut estimates the total grain harvest at 145 million tonnes, including 93 million tonnes of wheat. He relies on favorable agro-climatic conditions for grain development. Chairman of the Grain Exporters Union Eduard Zernin asserts that this year's grain harvest in Russia will be significantly higher than 120 million tonnes and that grain exports in the current agricultural year may reach 70 million tonnes. The analytical center "Rusagrotrans" forecasts a harvest of 140 million tonnes, including 92 million tonnes of wheat. An optimistic forecast stands at 144.3 million tonnes, including 96.3 million tonnes of wheat.
According to analysts from the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), the grain harvest is expected to reach 145 million tonnes, including 92 million tonnes of wheat. IKAR's General Director Dmitry Rylko predicts that the export potential for the next year will remain at 48 million tonnes of wheat and 63 million tonnes of grain in total.
According to experts from "Rusagrotrans," the area sown with winter wheat for the year 2024 has recovered from the 2022 level and reached 17.27 million hectares. A record was set in 2021 when almost 17.9 million hectares of winter wheat were planted. Currently, winter wheat sowings are mostly in good or excellent condition in all important regions, except for some parts of the Stavropol Krai, which suffered from drought. However, the moisture situation significantly improved during the winter in this region.
